NBA games

MIL @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
109106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL29212831109
ORL31203025106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home ORL
87% 13%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 41 14 4
Damian Lillard S 40 29 4 7
Khris Middleton 23 11 3 4
Bobby Portis 25 11 7 1
Brook Lopez S 34 8 3 0
Taurean Prince S 26 6 1 0
Gary Trent Jr. 24 3 3 1
AJ Green 19 0 3 0
Andre Jackson Jr. S 13 0 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 27 34 7 3
Cole Anthony S 35 18 7 2
Tristan da Silva S 40 16 10 2
Anthony Black 20 15 2 2
Jonathan Isaac 20 9 4 1
Caleb Houstan 29 5 3 2
Goga Bitadze S 23 4 5 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 11 3 1 3
Wendell Carter Jr. 25 2 5 3
Trevelin Queen 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Taurean Prince · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Taurean Prince makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
3 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
4 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
6 Tristan da Silva ORL
9%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
8 Cole Anthony ORL
8%
9 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
7%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
80%
Jumper
5%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.8 13.3 6.5
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.7 7.6 5.5
3 Damian Lillard MIL 23.2 4.3 6.8
4 Bobby Portis MIL 16.4 8.3 3.3
5 Khris Middleton MIL 14.2 4.8 4.4
6 Brook Lopez MIL 14.1 4.9 1.8
7 Cole Anthony ORL 13.4 4.2 4.1
8 Goga Bitadze ORL 12.7 10.4 3.5
9 Tristan da Silva ORL 12.3 5.4 2.5
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 12.2 3.0 2.5
11 Anthony Black ORL 10.1 2.9 2.6
12 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.5 5.4 1.7
13 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.4 3.0 1.3
14 AJ Green MIL 8.6 2.3 1.9
15 Taurean Prince MIL 7.1 3.0 1.8
16 Trevelin Queen ORL 6.4 2.2 1.9
17 Jett Howard ORL 6.4 1.8 1.3
18 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.9 2.6 1.3
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.4 4.9 1.1
20 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.4 1.5 1.0
21 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.6 2.9 1.4
22 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.3 2.5 1.1
23 Cory Joseph ORL 4.0 1.5 1.1
24 Delon Wright MIL 3.6 1.9 1.5
25 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.5 1.2 0.4
26 Liam Robbins MIL 2.5 1.6 0.5
27 Stanley Umude MIL 2.3 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.