NBA games

GS @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
96–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS2421252696
IND27233028108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home IND
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pat Spencer 20 17 3 1
Buddy Hield S 35 17 4 5
Dennis Schroder S 29 12 2 4
Gui Santos 24 11 3 3
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 27 9 10 1
Kyle Anderson S 26 8 7 5
Moses Moody 23 7 1 2
Lindy Waters III S 35 7 5 2
Quinten Post 7 6 0 0
Kevon Looney 14 2 7 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 30 25 9 0
Tyrese Haliburton S 35 25 2 10
Bennedict Mathurin S 34 21 10 2
Myles Turner S 29 11 8 2
T.J. McConnell 17 10 2 6
Thomas Bryant 17 5 4 1
Ben Sheppard 20 5 2 0
Andrew Nembhard S 29 4 4 5
Obi Toppin 16 2 4 1
Jarace Walker 7 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Layup (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes two point shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND
11%
3 Myles Turner IND
11%
4 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
10%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
6 Dennis Schroder GS
8%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Thomas Bryant IND
7%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
30%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 21.1 4.5 9.4
2 Pascal Siakam IND 19.5 7.7 3.3
3 Myles Turner IND 16.0 7.0 1.8
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.0 5.5 2.8
5 Andrew Nembhard IND 14.5 4.5 5.0
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 12.4 8.8 2.5
7 Dennis Schroder GS 11.4 2.6 4.8
8 Obi Toppin IND 9.0 4.0 1.3
9 Draymond Green GS 8.9 6.1 4.9
10 T.J. McConnell IND 8.8 2.7 4.1
11 Jarace Walker IND 8.5 2.4 1.4
12 Buddy Hield GS 8.0 3.2 1.7
13 Aaron Nesmith IND 8.0 3.1 1.2
14 Moses Moody GS 7.2 1.7 0.9
15 Lindy Waters III GS 6.6 2.8 1.1
16 Thomas Bryant IND 6.4 3.5 1.0
17 Ben Sheppard IND 6.1 3.0 1.1
18 Kyle Anderson GS 5.4 3.2 1.6
19 Kevon Looney GS 4.9 4.2 1.3
20 Gui Santos GS 3.3 1.9 0.7
21 Pat Spencer GS 2.7 1.8 1.3
22 Johnny Furphy IND 2.3 1.2 0.6
23 Quinten Post GS 1.9 0.7 0.3
24 James Johnson IND 1.9 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.