NBA games

MIA @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
9792
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA2026222997
UTAH2714292292

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home UTAH
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 37 23 7 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 36 20 7 7
Bam Adebayo S 29 15 7 3
Nikola Jovic 27 11 6 5
Terry Rozier S 33 9 3 1
Kel'el Ware 19 8 7 1
Alec Burks 18 6 7 1
Haywood Highsmith S 22 5 2 2
Duncan Robinson 18 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 29 23 1 5
Lauri Markkanen S 30 23 5 1
Patty Mills 18 9 1 1
Walker Kessler S 30 9 15 0
Isaiah Collier S 34 8 3 9
Drew Eubanks 18 6 4 3
Cody Williams 23 5 0 0
Johnny Juzang S 24 5 6 0
Kyle Filipowski 23 4 11 1
Micah Potter 12 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaime Jaquez Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
12%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
9%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
8%
6 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
8%
7 Keyonte George UTAH
6%
8 Terry Rozier MIA
6%
9 Isaiah Collier UTAH
6%
10 Haywood Highsmith MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
39%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 23.7 5.3 6.2
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 23.4 4.2 6.4
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 20.9 5.7 2.0
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.3 9.2 4.1
5 Keyonte George UTAH 17.6 4.3 5.7
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA 16.7 5.6 4.6
7 Terry Rozier MIA 14.0 4.7 3.0
8 Nikola Jovic MIA 12.5 3.7 3.5
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.6 2.7 3.9
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 11.2 4.4 3.6
11 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.8 11.6 2.0
12 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.4 3.9 1.7
13 Kel'el Ware MIA 8.3 4.2 1.0
14 Johnny Juzang UTAH 7.6 3.3 1.2
15 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.5 2.0 1.6
16 Alec Burks MIA 6.3 2.0 0.9
17 Isaiah Collier UTAH 5.9 3.6 4.8
18 Drew Eubanks UTAH 5.4 3.9 1.0
19 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 5.4 3.9 1.5
20 Josh Richardson MIA 5.3 1.8 1.6
21 Patty Mills UTAH 5.3 1.5 1.6
22 Josh Christopher MIA 4.8 1.7 1.9
23 Cody Williams UTAH 4.7 2.4 1.2
24 Micah Potter UTAH 4.2 2.9 1.1
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.1 2.4 0.8
26 Pelle Larsson MIA 3.8 1.7 1.2
27 Kevin Love MIA 3.6 2.3 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.