NBA games

ATL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
115–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL31412023115
PHX38303025123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home PHX
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 34 21 2 7
Bogdan Bogdanovic 28 17 2 3
Dyson Daniels S 36 13 4 3
De'Andre Hunter 27 12 3 4
Vit Krejci S 26 12 3 6
David Roddy 10 11 0 0
Clint Capela S 26 10 11 2
Onyeka Okongwu 22 8 5 6
Garrison Mathews 11 6 0 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 19 5 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bradley Beal 33 25 7 2
Kevin Durant S 36 23 2 7
Grayson Allen 27 23 2 1
Devin Booker S 40 20 3 12
Tyus Jones S 29 16 2 4
Ryan Dunn S 16 6 7 0
Josh Okogie 4 4 1 0
Oso Ighodaro 25 4 5 2
Mason Plumlee S 22 2 10 4
Monte Morris 7 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Devin Booker makes 11-foot two point shot (Kevin Durant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
16%
2 Devin Booker PHX
15%
3 Clint Capela ATL
10%
4 Trae Young ATL
10%
5 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
6 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
9%
7 Mason Plumlee PHX
8%
8 Tyus Jones PHX
8%
9 Ryan Dunn PHX
8%
10 Vit Krejci ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
79%
Jumper
5%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 30.3 6.9 5.2
2 Trae Young ATL 26.0 2.9 11.8
3 Devin Booker PHX 25.5 4.3 7.8
4 De'Andre Hunter ATL 19.6 4.1 2.2
5 Bradley Beal PHX 19.6 3.6 4.0
6 Tyus Jones PHX 13.2 3.3 4.4
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.8 5.1 4.2
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 11.5 3.9 1.6
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 11.0 3.0 2.9
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 10.3 7.5 1.3
11 Grayson Allen PHX 10.3 3.9 2.8
12 Clint Capela ATL 9.4 7.7 1.4
13 Ryan Dunn PHX 9.3 4.3 1.4
14 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 9.3 7.8 3.0
15 Garrison Mathews ATL 8.9 3.3 1.7
16 Vit Krejci ATL 6.9 2.8 2.6
17 Monte Morris PHX 6.8 2.2 1.9
18 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.5 6.5 2.0
19 Josh Okogie PHX 5.3 2.9 1.0
20 Kobe Bufkin ATL 5.2 2.2 1.6
21 Bol Bol PHX 3.8 2.0 0.5
22 Oso Ighodaro PHX 3.7 3.3 0.9
23 David Roddy ATL 3.0 1.1 0.5
24 Damion Lee PHX 2.6 1.1 0.6
25 Dominick Barlow ATL 1.7 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.