NBA games

POR @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
111–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR28303122111
DAL20332836117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home DAL
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 32 22 8 3
Anfernee Simons S 37 22 1 4
Scoot Henderson 26 20 2 4
Toumani Camara S 31 11 2 1
Donovan Clingan 24 11 11 1
Deni Avdija S 34 9 8 4
Deandre Ayton S 21 6 6 1
Dalano Banton 15 5 2 3
Kris Murray 20 5 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Hardy 29 25 0 2
P.J. Washington S 35 23 14 1
Dereck Lively II S 35 21 16 1
Spencer Dinwiddie S 35 17 5 5
Quentin Grimes 27 13 4 4
Naji Marshall S 26 11 2 4
Klay Thompson S 22 3 3 4
Maxi Kleber 12 2 2 1
Daniel Gafford 10 2 4 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 9 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anfernee Simons · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Anfernee Simons makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
11%
3 Deni Avdija POR
10%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
6 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
8%
8 Klay Thompson DAL
8%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Naji Marshall DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
36%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 23.0 3.5 6.3
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.7 4.4 3.0
3 Deni Avdija POR 20.0 6.8 3.8
4 Quentin Grimes DAL 15.9 5.5 3.5
5 Klay Thompson DAL 15.2 3.5 2.8
6 P.J. Washington DAL 14.5 6.0 1.9
7 Deandre Ayton POR 14.3 10.6 1.9
8 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 13.1 3.2 4.0
9 Scoot Henderson POR 12.4 3.7 5.0
10 Toumani Camara POR 11.7 6.5 1.9
11 Jerami Grant POR 11.1 3.6 2.0
12 Naji Marshall DAL 10.7 3.3 1.7
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.3 8.6 2.9
14 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.5 5.3 1.2
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.8 2.3 1.4
16 Dalano Banton POR 8.4 2.3 2.6
17 Maxi Kleber DAL 6.3 3.5 1.8
18 Robert Williams III POR 5.9 5.5 0.9
19 Donovan Clingan POR 4.7 4.2 0.9
20 Kris Murray POR 4.2 2.3 1.0
21 Jabari Walker POR 4.0 3.0 0.6
22 Duop Reath POR 3.8 1.8 0.5
23 Brandon Williams DAL 3.7 1.3 0.8
24 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.3 2.1 0.7
25 Rayan Rupert POR 2.7 1.4 0.8
26 Dwight Powell DAL 2.6 2.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.