NBA games

HOU @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
119–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU45233318119
MEM36272923115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home MEM
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 35 32 14 5
Jalen Green S 38 27 2 3
Fred VanVleet S 41 22 1 4
Jae'Sean Tate 18 12 4 0
Amen Thompson S 36 10 7 5
Cam Whitmore 15 9 2 0
Dillon Brooks S 35 5 5 4
Aaron Holiday 10 2 0 0
Steven Adams 12 0 9 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 29 27 3 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 34 21 8 4
Desmond Bane S 27 16 4 4
Santi Aldama 23 12 9 0
Luke Kennard 25 11 0 2
Brandon Clarke 17 8 4 1
Jay Huff 10 8 2 1
Zach Edey S 18 4 3 0
Jaylen Wells S 23 4 3 1
Jake LaRavia 20 4 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Wells · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jaylen Wells makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Green HOU
11%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
4 Ja Morant MEM
9%
5 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
6 Desmond Bane MEM
8%
7 Zach Edey MEM
7%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
6%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
6%
10 Dillon Brooks HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
32%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.4 7.8 4.1
2 Jalen Green HOU 23.6 4.7 2.8
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.0 10.8 5.5
4 Desmond Bane MEM 21.8 5.9 6.6
5 Ja Morant MEM 21.0 4.0 6.4
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.0 4.4 6.3
7 Amen Thompson HOU 16.0 9.3 3.3
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 15.7 4.6 2.2
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.5 5.7 1.6
10 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 13.2 3.4 4.2
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.8 4.0 1.9
12 Cam Whitmore HOU 11.1 3.8 1.2
13 Luke Kennard MEM 10.7 3.4 3.4
14 Santi Aldama MEM 10.0 5.9 1.7
15 Zach Edey MEM 9.9 8.2 1.5
16 Tari Eason HOU 9.5 5.9 1.3
17 Jake LaRavia MEM 8.4 3.4 3.2
18 Brandon Clarke MEM 7.2 5.6 1.0
19 Jay Huff MEM 6.9 2.7 1.0
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.1 2.3 1.1
21 John Konchar MEM 4.7 5.3 1.5
22 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.2 1.4 1.1
23 Jeff Green HOU 4.2 1.6 0.7
24 Steven Adams HOU 3.6 5.3 1.0
25 Nate Williams HOU 3.4 1.2 0.7
26 Jock Landale HOU 2.7 2.2 0.8
27 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.7 1.0 1.0
28 Colin Castleton MEM 1.6 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.