NBA games

MIN @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
104–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN29232626104
ORL1821232789

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home ORL
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 31 23 10 2
Anthony Edwards S 36 21 3 7
Naz Reid 23 16 3 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 24 12 2 4
Rudy Gobert S 32 10 12 1
Mike Conley 23 9 4 2
Jaden McDaniels S 32 7 8 1
Luka Garza 3 4 0 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 22 2 6 3
Josh Minott 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Goga Bitadze S 30 15 8 2
Caleb Houstan S 33 14 1 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 33 13 1 2
Cole Anthony S 27 12 3 5
Jett Howard 23 10 8 4
Wendell Carter Jr. 18 8 6 1
Tristan da Silva S 24 6 9 2
Jonathan Isaac 15 4 7 0
Trevelin Queen 21 3 4 1
Anthony Black 10 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes alley oop layup (Julius Randle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
13%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
4 Goga Bitadze ORL
10%
5 Cole Anthony ORL
10%
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
9%
7 Tristan da Silva ORL
9%
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
8%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
10 Caleb Houstan ORL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
42%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.2 6.4 4.4
2 Julius Randle MIN 20.5 7.2 5.7
3 Naz Reid MIN 15.0 4.9 2.1
4 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.7 4.0 3.5
5 Goga Bitadze ORL 12.7 10.0 3.5
6 Tristan da Silva ORL 12.2 4.5 2.4
7 Cole Anthony ORL 12.2 3.8 3.7
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 11.9 2.8 2.6
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.0 5.9 1.8
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.8 9.5 1.2
11 Anthony Black ORL 9.7 2.9 2.5
12 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.5 5.0 1.3
13 Mike Conley MIN 7.9 2.2 3.5
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.0 2.6 2.0
15 Trevelin Queen ORL 6.0 1.9 1.8
16 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.4 2.3 0.8
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.3 4.5 1.1
18 Jett Howard ORL 5.2 1.3 0.9
19 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.8 1.3 0.9
20 Josh Minott MIN 4.0 1.8 0.8
21 Luka Garza MIN 3.2 1.3 0.3
22 Cory Joseph ORL 2.9 1.1 0.8
23 Joe Ingles MIN 2.7 1.3 1.7
24 Leonard Miller MIN 2.6 2.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.