NBA games

GS @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
107–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS25322525107
DET23242730104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home DET
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Buddy Hield S 31 19 5 3
Stephen Curry S 36 17 9 6
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 26 14 10 3
Dennis Schroder S 34 13 0 6
Gui Santos 26 13 5 3
Lindy Waters III 20 11 2 0
Kevon Looney 21 8 8 3
Draymond Green S 32 7 5 4
Kyle Anderson 9 4 5 3
Pat Spencer 4 1 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 40 32 6 8
Malik Beasley S 36 21 4 2
Tobias Harris S 32 13 4 4
Ronald Holland II 20 11 1 1
Ausar Thompson S 17 9 2 3
Jalen Duren S 31 8 12 3
Isaiah Stewart 17 4 5 1
Marcus Sasser 16 3 3 1
Simone Fontecchio 27 3 3 2
Wendell Moore Jr. 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Buddy Hield · Layup (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Buddy Hield makes driving layup (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
15%
2 Stephen Curry GS
12%
3 Jalen Duren DET
11%
4 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
10%
5 Dennis Schroder GS
10%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
9%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Tobias Harris DET
8%
10 Malik Beasley DET
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
31%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.3 5.0 8.9
2 Stephen Curry GS 22.4 4.9 5.3
3 Malik Beasley DET 14.9 3.2 2.1
4 Tobias Harris DET 12.4 5.3 2.5
5 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 12.3 8.3 2.3
6 Jalen Duren DET 12.2 10.0 2.2
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 11.4 2.2 1.6
8 Dennis Schroder GS 11.1 2.7 4.4
9 Draymond Green GS 10.6 6.1 4.8
10 Simone Fontecchio DET 8.0 2.7 1.4
11 Ausar Thompson DET 7.6 5.3 1.3
12 Moses Moody GS 7.2 1.7 0.8
13 Buddy Hield GS 7.1 3.1 1.5
14 Lindy Waters III GS 6.3 2.8 1.1
15 Marcus Sasser DET 6.2 1.5 2.5
16 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.0 5.0 1.3
17 Ronald Holland II DET 5.9 2.5 1.1
18 Kyle Anderson GS 5.4 2.7 1.3
19 Paul Reed DET 4.9 2.8 1.4
20 Kevon Looney GS 4.4 3.9 1.0
21 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.4 2.7 1.5
22 Gui Santos GS 2.4 1.5 0.6
23 Pat Spencer GS 2.4 1.6 1.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.