NBA games

TOR @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
126–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR33284223126
CLE27343734132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CLE
7% 93%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 38 24 10 8
Chris Boucher 27 23 12 0
RJ Barrett S 38 20 5 5
Jakob Poeltl S 34 17 7 6
Jamal Shead 15 15 0 3
Gradey Dick S 21 11 1 1
Immanuel Quickley S 30 10 0 7
Ja'Kobe Walter 15 4 0 1
Davion Mitchell 16 2 2 2
Kelly Olynyk 6 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 36 40 2 9
Evan Mobley S 32 21 11 6
Caris LeVert S 36 18 3 5
Jarrett Allen S 29 18 15 3
Max Strus 25 12 2 3
Ty Jerome 20 8 2 1
Georges Niang 13 8 0 1
Dean Wade S 29 5 5 2
Sam Merrill 13 2 0 0
Isaac Okoro 8 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Immanuel Quickley · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Immanuel Quickley makes two point shot (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
14%
2 Immanuel Quickley TOR
12%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
12%
5 Gradey Dick TOR
11%
6 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
11%
8 Darius Garland CLE
9%
9 Dean Wade CLE
8%
10 Kelly Olynyk TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
25%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
18%
Layup
48%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 23.8 7.4 5.8
2 Evan Mobley CLE 23.4 8.1 4.2
3 Darius Garland CLE 23.1 3.4 7.3
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.5 7.5 5.5
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.3 3.2 6.4
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.2 10.1 2.5
7 Gradey Dick TOR 14.7 4.4 2.8
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.7 8.5 2.8
9 Caris LeVert CLE 10.1 2.9 2.9
10 Georges Niang CLE 9.5 3.5 2.5
11 Dean Wade CLE 8.7 5.7 1.6
12 Ty Jerome CLE 8.6 2.7 3.7
13 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.5 2.5 1.5
14 Chris Boucher TOR 8.2 3.4 0.9
15 Max Strus CLE 8.2 3.4 2.9
16 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.6 2.6 1.9
17 Kelly Olynyk TOR 6.9 3.6 2.2
18 Jamal Shead TOR 6.8 2.2 4.8
19 Sam Merrill CLE 5.9 1.6 1.2
20 Bruce Brown TOR 5.7 2.2 0.8
21 Davion Mitchell TOR 5.4 1.9 2.9
22 JT Thor CLE 3.9 1.3 0.5
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.5 3.0 0.4
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.4 1.4 0.7
25 Jaylon Tyson CLE 2.2 1.3 0.5
26 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.1 1.3 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.