NBA games

SA @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
105–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA27193227105
MIL31342630121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MIL
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 25 24 11 1
Chris Paul S 29 18 5 7
Harrison Barnes S 25 14 2 1
Devin Vassell S 32 11 9 2
Victor Wembanyama S 33 10 10 1
Julian Champagnie 27 9 3 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 6 7 0 0
Stephon Castle S 25 5 0 5
Charles Bassey 13 4 2 0
Tre Jones 16 3 2 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 35 26 5 8
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 36 25 16 8
Brook Lopez S 35 22 7 1
AJ Green 25 14 1 1
Gary Trent Jr. 22 14 3 2
Khris Middleton 21 8 5 3
Bobby Portis 19 5 11 2
Taurean Prince S 24 3 4 1
MarJon Beauchamp 3 2 1 0
Ryan Rollins 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chris Paul · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Chris Paul makes technical free throw"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
15%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
3 Brook Lopez MIL
11%
4 Devin Vassell SA
11%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
10%
6 Khris Middleton MIL
8%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
8 Chris Paul SA
8%
9 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
8%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
19%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.1 13.3 6.4
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 26.3 11.6 3.7
3 Damian Lillard MIL 23.2 4.3 6.8
4 Bobby Portis MIL 16.8 8.6 3.8
5 Devin Vassell SA 16.3 5.1 3.5
6 Brook Lopez MIL 13.8 5.2 1.9
7 Khris Middleton MIL 13.7 4.8 4.8
8 Keldon Johnson SA 10.7 4.4 1.5
9 Chris Paul SA 10.5 4.7 7.3
10 Harrison Barnes SA 10.3 3.1 1.4
11 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.9 3.1 1.3
12 Stephon Castle SA 8.8 2.5 3.0
13 Julian Champagnie SA 8.4 3.4 1.2
14 AJ Green MIL 8.3 2.5 2.1
15 Taurean Prince MIL 7.1 3.0 2.0
16 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.9 2.7 1.5
17 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.0 2.9 1.2
18 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.8 3.1 1.7
19 Charles Bassey SA 4.7 5.3 0.5
20 Tre Jones SA 4.6 2.3 3.8
21 Delon Wright MIL 4.2 2.2 1.6
22 Zach Collins SA 2.8 2.3 0.7
23 Liam Robbins MIL 2.8 1.9 0.7
24 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.7 2.1 0.4
25 Stanley Umude MIL 2.6 1.3 0.6
26 Blake Wesley SA 2.5 0.9 1.5
27 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.5 1.3 0.5
28 Malaki Branham SA 2.3 0.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.