NBA games

LAC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
103–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC19312726103
DEN33333228126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DEN
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 28 30 4 1
James Harden S 27 16 3 4
Kevin Porter Jr. 15 10 0 1
Ivica Zubac S 29 10 8 3
Kobe Brown 11 6 3 0
Amir Coffey 33 6 0 1
Jordan Miller 15 6 5 0
Bones Hyland 9 5 2 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 15 4 2 0
Mo Bamba 15 4 8 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 34 21 3 9
Russell Westbrook S 29 19 6 8
Michael Porter Jr. S 27 19 8 2
Julian Strawther 32 16 4 2
Christian Braun S 28 15 2 1
DeAndre Jordan S 23 12 9 2
Peyton Watson 24 9 4 1
Dario Saric 20 7 7 2
Jalen Pickett 4 6 0 0
Zeke Nnaji 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Russell Westbrook assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
16%
2 Norman Powell LAC
14%
3 James Harden LAC
13%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
5 Russell Westbrook DEN
11%
6 Christian Braun DEN
8%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
8 Dario Saric DEN
8%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
10 Nicolas Batum LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
24%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 23.1 4.8 7.5
2 Norman Powell LAC 23.1 4.3 2.8
3 Jamal Murray DEN 22.4 4.6 6.4
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.0 5.4 2.5
5 Russell Westbrook DEN 17.0 6.8 6.8
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.5 12.2 3.1
7 Christian Braun DEN 12.0 4.6 2.9
8 Amir Coffey LAC 11.7 3.1 1.5
9 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 10.7 3.8 4.3
10 Julian Strawther DEN 9.7 3.0 1.4
11 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.1 3.3 1.3
12 Peyton Watson DEN 9.0 4.0 1.8
13 Kris Dunn LAC 8.5 3.1 3.3
14 Bones Hyland LAC 7.2 1.6 1.8
15 Terance Mann LAC 6.6 1.9 1.6
16 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.7 2.8 1.6
17 Dario Saric DEN 4.6 3.2 1.5
18 Jordan Miller LAC 4.1 1.9 1.4
19 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.9 4.0 0.8
20 Kobe Brown LAC 3.1 2.1 0.7
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.8 1.2 1.7
22 Mo Bamba LAC 2.7 3.0 0.5
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.5 1.3 0.5
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.4 1.1 0.5
25 Trey Alexander DEN 1.1 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.