NBA games

POR @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
119–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR40352321119
NO24183424100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home NO
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 27 26 6 2
Shaedon Sharpe S 33 21 1 2
Anfernee Simons S 29 17 6 5
Toumani Camara S 29 15 3 5
Scoot Henderson 29 13 2 5
Deandre Ayton S 27 11 13 3
Kris Murray 21 6 1 0
Dalano Banton 15 4 1 2
Robert Williams III 16 4 6 0
Duop Reath 4 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 27 23 2 2
Dejounte Murray S 26 20 3 5
Jordan Hawkins 25 10 1 1
Jose Alvarado 20 9 3 3
Javonte Green 29 9 7 0
Antonio Reeves 6 9 0 0
Brandon Boston 21 6 4 0
Daniel Theis 17 6 6 0
Karlo Matkovic 6 4 4 1
Yves Missi S 25 2 7 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum NO
13%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
13%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
4 Anfernee Simons POR
11%
5 Dejounte Murray NO
11%
6 Yves Missi NO
10%
7 Deni Avdija POR
10%
8 Herbert Jones NO
8%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Jerami Grant POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
22%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 CJ McCollum NO 24.1 4.3 4.6
2 Anfernee Simons POR 23.9 3.4 6.7
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.9 4.8 3.5
4 Deni Avdija POR 20.6 7.0 4.1
5 Dejounte Murray NO 19.4 6.4 8.8
6 Deandre Ayton POR 15.3 10.9 2.1
7 Jose Alvarado NO 12.9 2.9 4.2
8 Jerami Grant POR 12.0 3.6 2.2
9 Herbert Jones NO 11.8 4.0 4.4
10 Toumani Camara POR 11.5 6.8 1.8
11 Scoot Henderson POR 11.5 3.5 5.2
12 Yves Missi NO 11.0 8.2 1.9
13 Dalano Banton POR 8.3 2.2 2.6
14 Brandon Boston NO 8.2 3.0 1.5
15 Jordan Hawkins NO 7.4 2.2 1.1
16 Donovan Clingan POR 5.4 4.3 1.1
17 Daniel Theis NO 5.4 4.6 1.7
18 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.1 3.5 1.2
19 Kris Murray POR 4.8 2.2 1.2
20 Robert Williams III POR 4.8 4.9 0.7
21 Javonte Green NO 4.1 1.9 0.5
22 Antonio Reeves NO 4.1 1.2 0.7
23 Jabari Walker POR 3.3 2.5 0.4
24 Duop Reath POR 2.9 1.0 0.4
25 Karlo Matkovic NO 2.6 2.2 0.7
26 Rayan Rupert POR 2.4 1.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.