NBA games

WSH @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
103–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH25232629103
PHI32272921109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home PHI
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jared Butler 20 26 4 7
Corey Kispert 35 23 5 5
Kyle Kuzma S 31 16 5 2
Jonas Valanciunas S 21 14 14 1
Bub Carrington S 31 8 2 5
Bilal Coulibaly S 31 5 4 2
Justin Champagnie 17 5 2 1
Kyshawn George S 28 3 4 2
Richaun Holmes 27 3 11 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 39 29 3 6
Guerschon Yabusele S 34 21 8 3
Eric Gordon S 31 15 2 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 38 15 4 4
Ricky Council IV 19 8 5 1
Caleb Martin S 35 8 5 2
Reggie Jackson 8 6 1 1
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 9 3 2 1
Adem Bona 14 2 3 2
Justin Edwards 12 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
13%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
12%
3 Paul George PHI
12%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
11%
6 Kyle Kuzma WSH
10%
7 Bub Carrington WSH
8%
8 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
8%
9 Caleb Martin PHI
7%
10 Kyshawn George WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
36%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.3 3.5 7.2
2 Paul George PHI 17.9 6.0 4.6
3 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 17.4 5.8 4.8
4 Alex Sarr WSH 15.2 6.9 2.9
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.3 7.3 2.3
6 Kyle Kuzma WSH 13.0 4.8 2.1
7 Corey Kispert WSH 12.0 3.0 2.0
8 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 11.9 4.9 1.9
9 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 11.6 8.5 2.7
10 Bub Carrington WSH 10.9 3.8 3.8
11 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.7 6.2 1.5
12 Caleb Martin PHI 10.4 4.2 2.1
13 Jared Butler WSH 7.7 1.8 2.8
14 Kyshawn George WSH 7.4 3.8 1.6
15 Ricky Council IV PHI 6.8 3.0 1.0
16 Eric Gordon PHI 5.4 1.5 1.2
17 Justin Edwards PHI 5.2 2.0 0.9
18 Andre Drummond PHI 4.9 6.5 0.8
19 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.3 1.8 1.2
20 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 3.9 1.5 1.1
21 Adem Bona PHI 3.5 3.1 0.7
22 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.4 2.6 0.5
23 Anthony Gill WSH 3.0 1.7 0.5
24 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.9 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.