NBA games

TOR @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
98–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR2427252298
NY28273126112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home NY
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 31 22 3 5
Scottie Barnes S 36 18 5 5
RJ Barrett S 28 16 5 2
Chris Boucher 4 10 0 0
Jakob Poeltl S 30 8 10 3
Kelly Olynyk 18 7 4 0
Jamal Shead 16 4 0 4
Bruce Brown 21 4 1 0
Ochai Agbaji 9 4 0 1
Gradey Dick S 20 3 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 38 27 2 0
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 27 13 2
Josh Hart S 38 21 11 7
Jalen Brunson S 35 13 6 7
Mikal Bridges S 36 10 3 3
Landry Shamet 21 8 2 1
Precious Achiuwa 15 6 4 1
Jacob Toppin 2 0 1 0
Jericho Sims 4 0 1 1
Cameron Payne 11 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Immanuel Quickley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Immanuel Quickley makes 22-foot three point shot (RJ Barrett assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Immanuel Quickley TOR
11%
2 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
3 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
4 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
5 Josh Hart NY
10%
6 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
7 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
8 OG Anunoby NY
9%
9 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
10 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
44%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.1 3.2 7.8
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 26.7 12.9 4.2
3 RJ Barrett TOR 24.1 7.5 6.2
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.1 7.1 5.5
5 Mikal Bridges NY 17.9 3.1 3.5
6 Josh Hart NY 17.0 10.5 6.3
7 Gradey Dick TOR 16.3 4.3 2.9
8 OG Anunoby NY 16.3 4.9 2.2
9 Immanuel Quickley TOR 16.0 3.1 7.0
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 14.4 8.1 2.9
11 Ochai Agbaji TOR 10.3 3.2 1.5
12 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 9.0 2.4 1.6
13 Miles McBride NY 7.3 2.5 3.0
14 Kelly Olynyk TOR 6.8 3.5 2.3
15 Chris Boucher TOR 6.6 2.9 0.8
16 Jamal Shead TOR 6.6 2.1 4.7
17 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.4 5.4 1.2
18 Cameron Payne NY 5.6 1.4 1.9
19 Bruce Brown TOR 5.5 2.1 0.8
20 Davion Mitchell TOR 5.4 1.8 3.0
21 Landry Shamet NY 5.3 1.6 1.1
22 Jericho Sims NY 2.8 2.6 0.8
23 Matt Ryan NY 2.2 0.8 0.6
24 Jacob Toppin NY 2.2 1.0 0.7
25 Tyler Kolek NY 2.2 0.9 0.9
26 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.2 1.5 0.6
27 Garrett Temple TOR 1.2 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.