NBA games

CHI @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
113–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI18263237113
IND29343729129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home IND
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 35 31 4 4
Coby White S 31 19 2 5
Jalen Smith 17 13 7 3
Nikola Vucevic S 27 10 7 1
Josh Giddey S 22 9 5 5
Talen Horton-Tucker 10 8 0 0
Julian Phillips 15 6 2 0
Lonzo Ball 19 5 3 1
Chris Duarte 14 5 3 3
Patrick Williams S 21 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 29 26 6 3
Thomas Bryant S 28 22 8 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 30 16 3 13
Andrew Nembhard S 31 14 6 5
Jarace Walker 19 12 2 3
Obi Toppin 23 12 5 2
Bennedict Mathurin S 25 8 3 4
Ben Sheppard 21 7 7 0
Enrique Freeman 16 6 4 1
T.J. McConnell 16 6 2 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Vucevic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Nikola Vucevic makes 11-foot two point shot (Coby White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bennedict Mathurin IND
12%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
4 Myles Turner IND
11%
5 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
7 Coby White CHI
9%
8 Zach LaVine CHI
9%
9 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
10 Patrick Williams CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
30%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 24.7 5.1 5.5
2 Coby White CHI 21.0 3.4 5.3
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.3 4.7 9.6
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.9 10.6 3.6
5 Pascal Siakam IND 19.7 9.1 3.5
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 17.1 5.8 2.8
7 Myles Turner IND 16.7 7.2 1.9
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 15.4 4.5 5.5
9 Josh Giddey CHI 13.3 8.1 6.1
10 Patrick Williams CHI 11.1 3.5 2.2
11 Obi Toppin IND 10.2 4.5 1.6
12 T.J. McConnell IND 9.4 3.0 4.5
13 Jarace Walker IND 8.2 2.3 1.3
14 Jalen Smith CHI 7.6 6.1 1.0
15 Lonzo Ball CHI 6.8 3.7 3.5
16 Ben Sheppard IND 5.9 3.0 1.1
17 Thomas Bryant IND 5.4 3.5 1.1
18 Julian Phillips CHI 4.9 2.0 0.7
19 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 4.5 2.4 1.4
20 Matas Buzelis CHI 4.4 3.1 0.9
21 Dalen Terry CHI 4.3 1.8 1.3
22 Quenton Jackson IND 4.3 1.3 1.5
23 Jevon Carter CHI 3.3 0.9 0.7
24 Johnny Furphy IND 3.2 1.6 0.8
25 James Johnson IND 2.7 1.8 0.7
26 Enrique Freeman IND 1.9 0.9 0.4
27 Chris Duarte CHI 1.7 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.