NBA games

OKC @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
122–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC32274320122
CLE25374126129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home CLE
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 31 5 4
Jalen Williams S 36 25 5 9
Isaiah Hartenstein S 31 18 11 8
Cason Wallace S 31 15 2 3
Aaron Wiggins 22 11 2 1
Isaiah Joe 25 8 7 3
Luguentz Dort S 34 7 4 4
Kenrich Williams 13 4 0 1
Jaylin Williams 11 3 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 32 25 11 6
Evan Mobley S 35 21 10 7
Darius Garland S 32 18 1 7
Max Strus 26 17 3 5
Ty Jerome 12 15 2 1
Dean Wade S 21 11 3 1
Donovan Mitchell S 35 11 6 4
Caris LeVert 20 8 2 2
Georges Niang 14 3 2 2
Isaac Okoro 13 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dean Wade · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Dean Wade makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
6 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
8 Darius Garland CLE
8%
9 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
63%
Jumper
18%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.6 5.7 6.7
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 21.6 3.8 5.3
3 Darius Garland CLE 21.6 3.8 6.9
4 Jalen Williams OKC 19.4 5.2 5.8
5 Evan Mobley CLE 19.3 7.2 3.2
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.0 9.6 1.9
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 12.2 11.0 3.5
8 Caris LeVert CLE 10.3 3.0 3.1
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.7 2.9 1.3
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.4 3.8 1.2
11 Georges Niang CLE 8.2 3.5 2.0
12 Dean Wade CLE 7.6 5.9 1.4
13 Cason Wallace OKC 6.9 2.6 2.3
14 Ty Jerome CLE 6.4 2.3 3.2
15 Max Strus CLE 6.0 3.4 2.2
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.6 2.7 1.0
17 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.6 2.0 0.8
18 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.4 1.8 1.5
19 Alex Caruso OKC 5.1 2.3 1.8
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.9 2.6 1.5
21 JT Thor CLE 3.7 1.4 0.5
22 Alex Ducas OKC 3.5 1.4 0.6
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.4 3.0 0.5
24 Jaylon Tyson CLE 2.1 1.3 0.6
25 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.0 1.3 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.