NBA games

MIA @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
114–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA29322330114
GS2325302098

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home GS
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jovic 34 20 6 4
Bam Adebayo S 30 19 9 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 29 18 5 1
Tyler Herro S 26 14 8 3
Duncan Robinson 21 12 1 8
Alec Burks 25 11 4 0
Terry Rozier S 32 9 5 5
Kel'el Ware 18 6 4 1
Haywood Highsmith S 23 5 6 5
Pelle Larsson 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 33 31 7 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 35 19 7 0
Buddy Hield 24 11 8 5
Andrew Wiggins S 25 9 5 1
Draymond Green S 27 7 10 10
Lindy Waters III 19 6 2 0
Dennis Schroder S 29 5 3 7
Kyle Anderson 27 5 5 4
Moses Moody 15 3 3 1
Pat Spencer 3 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 11-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
5 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
6 Dennis Schroder GS
8%
7 Terry Rozier MIA
8%
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
7%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Stephen Curry GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
48%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 23.9 5.6 5.9
2 Stephen Curry GS 21.8 4.4 6.0
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.4 9.4 3.8
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 17.1 5.8 4.6
5 Andrew Wiggins GS 14.9 4.9 2.4
6 Terry Rozier MIA 13.3 5.0 2.5
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.0 2.7 3.3
8 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 11.1 8.6 2.5
9 Dennis Schroder GS 11.1 2.7 4.6
10 Nikola Jovic MIA 10.7 3.3 2.8
11 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.6 4.5 3.3
12 Draymond Green GS 10.5 5.8 4.6
13 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.4 4.0 1.4
14 Kel'el Ware MIA 8.2 4.3 0.9
15 Moses Moody GS 7.5 1.6 0.9
16 Buddy Hield GS 7.1 2.8 1.4
17 Lindy Waters III GS 6.1 2.9 1.4
18 Kyle Anderson GS 5.6 2.4 1.3
19 Josh Richardson MIA 5.3 1.8 1.5
20 Alec Burks MIA 5.1 1.6 0.8
21 Kevon Looney GS 5.0 4.2 1.1
22 Josh Christopher MIA 4.9 1.4 2.3
23 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.3 1.8 1.1
24 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.0 2.4 0.7
25 Kevin Love MIA 3.5 2.4 0.9
26 Pat Spencer GS 2.6 1.7 1.7
27 Gui Santos GS 2.3 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.