NBA games

BOS @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
118–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS37203130118
DEN25322623106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home DEN
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 38 29 4 6
Kristaps Porzingis S 34 25 11 3
Jrue Holiday S 32 19 3 7
Jaylen Brown S 38 14 8 8
Sam Hauser 18 9 2 1
Al Horford S 34 9 7 0
Neemias Queta 8 8 0 0
Payton Pritchard 20 3 3 4
Luke Kornet 18 2 3 1
Jaden Springer 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Russell Westbrook S 33 26 9 6
Julian Strawther 27 19 2 2
Jamal Murray S 39 19 4 4
Michael Porter Jr. S 36 15 10 3
Peyton Watson 34 14 4 0
Christian Braun S 29 12 4 2
DeAndre Jordan 20 1 5 1
Dario Saric S 17 0 1 4
Zeke Nnaji 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 18-foot jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
13%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
5 Russell Westbrook DEN
11%
6 Christian Braun DEN
11%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
9 Derrick White BOS
8%
10 Payton Pritchard BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
43%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.2 10.5 5.6
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.8 6.0 5.5
3 Jamal Murray DEN 23.1 4.5 6.3
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 18.4 4.8 2.4
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 17.8 6.2 2.0
6 Derrick White BOS 16.8 4.3 3.7
7 Russell Westbrook DEN 15.3 6.0 6.6
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.4 4.1 3.6
9 Christian Braun DEN 11.7 4.4 2.8
10 Payton Pritchard BOS 11.6 3.9 3.4
11 Al Horford BOS 8.3 5.5 2.0
12 Peyton Watson DEN 7.7 3.5 1.7
13 Julian Strawther DEN 7.6 2.5 1.2
14 Sam Hauser BOS 5.7 2.3 1.3
15 Luke Kornet BOS 5.6 6.7 1.6
16 Dario Saric DEN 4.3 3.0 1.1
17 Neemias Queta BOS 4.2 3.5 0.5
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.2 4.0 0.6
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.9 1.3 1.8
20 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.8 1.4 0.6
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.7 1.5 0.5
22 Jaden Springer BOS 2.0 1.1 0.5
23 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.7 1.1 0.4
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.3 0.5 0.3
25 Trey Alexander DEN 1.0 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.