NBA games

MIN @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
104–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN34202921104
NO3321212297

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home NO
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 32 9 3
Julius Randle S 35 16 6 3
Naz Reid 23 13 12 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 18 11 1 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 29 10 2 7
Mike Conley 25 8 4 6
Rudy Gobert S 35 7 14 4
Jaden McDaniels S 31 5 3 0
Josh Minott 6 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 34 29 2 6
Zion Williamson S 28 22 6 4
Jose Alvarado 20 13 1 1
Herbert Jones S 32 10 6 5
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 21 5 8 1
Brandon Boston 25 5 4 2
CJ McCollum S 30 5 2 2
Daniel Theis 13 3 8 2
Jordan Hawkins 10 3 0 0
Yves Missi S 28 2 9 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 15-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
15%
2 Zion Williamson NO
11%
3 Dejounte Murray NO
11%
4 Julius Randle MIN
10%
5 Yves Missi NO
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
7 CJ McCollum NO
10%
8 Herbert Jones NO
7%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
32%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.5 6.1 5.2
2 Zion Williamson NO 23.5 8.1 5.1
3 CJ McCollum NO 23.4 4.3 4.5
4 Julius Randle MIN 20.7 7.3 6.3
5 Dejounte Murray NO 17.7 6.9 8.9
6 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 15.3 4.4 3.6
7 Naz Reid MIN 14.7 4.6 2.3
8 Herbert Jones NO 12.6 4.1 4.1
9 Jose Alvarado NO 12.3 2.7 4.5
10 Yves Missi NO 11.2 9.1 1.9
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.7 5.6 1.7
12 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.5 9.4 1.2
13 Brandon Boston NO 9.1 2.9 1.5
14 Mike Conley MIN 7.9 2.1 3.3
15 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.6 3.1 2.1
16 Jordan Hawkins NO 7.6 2.5 1.1
17 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.7 2.5 0.9
18 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.2 3.1 1.1
19 Daniel Theis NO 5.2 4.1 1.6
20 Josh Minott MIN 4.4 2.1 0.9
21 Javonte Green NO 4.1 2.0 0.6
22 Luka Garza MIN 3.9 1.6 0.4
23 Antonio Reeves NO 3.8 1.2 0.7
24 Leonard Miller MIN 3.3 2.5 0.4
25 Joe Ingles MIN 3.0 1.5 1.9
26 Karlo Matkovic NO 2.5 2.2 0.7
27 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 1.6 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.