NBA games

LAL @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
97–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL2723262197
DAL24313429118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home DAL
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 35 21 12 3
LeBron James S 35 18 10 8
Austin Reaves S 32 15 2 1
Dalton Knecht 16 13 0 0
Max Christie S 30 12 1 3
Dorian Finney-Smith 28 11 3 0
Rui Hachimura S 26 6 1 2
Jaxson Hayes 12 1 3 1
Bronny James 1 0 0 0
Gabe Vincent 24 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quentin Grimes 29 23 9 6
P.J. Washington S 39 22 8 0
Spencer Dinwiddie S 35 19 6 8
Jaden Hardy 22 15 3 2
Klay Thompson S 29 13 0 2
Dereck Lively II S 19 7 6 3
Naji Marshall S 29 7 5 2
Maxi Kleber 29 5 3 5
Brandon Williams 1 4 0 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 5 3 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
13%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
4 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
6 Maxi Kleber DAL
8%
7 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
8 Naji Marshall DAL
8%
9 Klay Thompson DAL
7%
10 Max Christie LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
65%
Jumper
17%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 28.2 7.0 8.2
2 Anthony Davis LAL 23.6 12.6 3.9
3 Austin Reaves LAL 22.6 5.5 7.9
4 Klay Thompson DAL 16.0 3.9 2.8
5 Quentin Grimes DAL 14.1 5.2 3.3
6 P.J. Washington DAL 13.6 5.8 1.9
7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 12.8 3.1 4.1
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.2 4.9 1.4
9 Max Christie LAL 11.9 3.3 1.6
10 Naji Marshall DAL 11.9 3.6 1.8
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.2 8.7 2.9
12 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 8.9 3.9 1.3
13 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.4 2.3 1.4
14 Shake Milton LAL 8.0 2.7 2.1
15 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.5 2.5 1.0
16 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.8 3.5 1.4
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.7 4.4 0.6
18 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.8 1.8 1.4
19 Cam Reddish LAL 4.2 2.4 0.8
20 Brandon Williams DAL 4.2 1.5 0.8
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.5 2.1 0.8
22 Bronny James LAL 2.9 1.5 0.5
23 Dwight Powell DAL 2.8 2.5 0.8
24 Markieff Morris DAL 2.5 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.