NBA games

HOU @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
135–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU20374038135
WSH30252433112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home WSH
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 30 29 8 2
Alperen Sengun S 30 26 10 6
Amen Thompson S 41 20 15 4
Fred VanVleet S 38 19 1 12
Cam Whitmore 18 17 1 0
Dillon Brooks S 18 11 1 2
Jeff Green 10 7 1 0
Aaron Holiday 23 4 2 4
Jae'Sean Tate 14 2 1 0
Jock Landale 3 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Corey Kispert 33 23 4 3
Jonas Valanciunas 22 18 4 1
Jared Butler 22 14 0 5
Bilal Coulibaly S 30 12 5 1
Bub Carrington S 34 12 4 5
Kyle Kuzma S 17 10 6 2
Kyshawn George S 27 9 4 3
Justin Champagnie 21 7 5 0
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 4 5 1 0
Alex Sarr S 23 2 9 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
11%
3 Jalen Green HOU
10%
4 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
5 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
9 Jeff Green HOU
7%
10 Justin Champagnie WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
45%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 22.6 4.5 3.0
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.2 11.2 4.9
3 Amen Thompson HOU 16.3 9.0 3.4
4 Alex Sarr WSH 16.1 6.5 3.1
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 16.0 5.7 4.8
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 15.9 4.8 2.2
7 Fred VanVleet HOU 14.4 4.8 6.0
8 Kyle Kuzma WSH 14.4 4.7 2.1
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.7 5.9 1.8
10 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.9 6.9 1.7
11 Bub Carrington WSH 10.8 4.4 3.7
12 Cam Whitmore HOU 9.9 3.8 1.1
13 Corey Kispert WSH 9.7 2.6 1.6
14 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 9.7 7.7 2.6
15 Tari Eason HOU 9.6 6.0 1.3
16 Kyshawn George WSH 6.7 3.7 1.4
17 Jared Butler WSH 6.7 1.7 2.6
18 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.4 2.4 1.1
19 Steven Adams HOU 4.1 5.3 1.0
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.1 1.5 1.0
21 Nate Williams HOU 3.8 1.4 0.6
22 Jeff Green HOU 3.6 1.4 0.6
23 Anthony Gill WSH 3.1 1.6 0.5
24 Jock Landale HOU 2.9 2.7 0.8
25 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.1 1.9 0.2
26 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.1 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.