NBA games

PHX @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
104–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX29173721104
CHA22372927115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home CHA
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 39 39 6 10
Kevin Durant S 36 26 6 2
Bradley Beal 31 10 0 5
Grayson Allen 25 9 3 0
Jusuf Nurkic 19 8 3 3
Ryan Dunn S 25 6 4 0
Tyus Jones S 22 4 1 4
Monte Morris 15 2 5 0
Oso Ighodaro 6 0 2 1
Mason Plumlee S 20 0 12 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 35 32 10 7
Miles Bridges S 37 21 7 3
Nick Richards 25 15 12 0
Brandon Miller S 33 13 3 2
Mark Williams S 22 9 10 3
Nick Smith Jr. 21 8 4 3
Josh Green S 13 5 6 0
Cody Martin 29 4 5 3
Vasilije Micic 15 4 0 2
Tidjane Salaun 11 4 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Layup (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Devin Booker makes layup (Mason Plumlee assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Miller CHA
14%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
4 Mark Williams CHA
12%
5 Devin Booker PHX
11%
6 Tyus Jones PHX
8%
7 Mason Plumlee PHX
7%
8 Josh Green CHA
7%
9 Seth Curry CHA
6%
10 Ryan Dunn PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
27%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 28.9 5.8 8.5
2 Kevin Durant PHX 28.1 7.1 5.3
3 Devin Booker PHX 24.5 4.5 6.9
4 Brandon Miller CHA 23.2 5.0 4.0
5 Miles Bridges CHA 21.7 8.9 4.8
6 Bradley Beal PHX 19.4 3.9 3.6
7 Tyus Jones PHX 14.2 3.5 4.9
8 Mark Williams CHA 13.6 8.5 2.2
9 Grayson Allen PHX 10.3 3.8 2.9
10 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.0 8.6 2.8
11 Cody Martin CHA 9.5 5.0 2.4
12 Ryan Dunn PHX 8.7 4.1 1.4
13 Josh Green CHA 8.3 3.1 1.6
14 Vasilije Micic CHA 7.7 2.3 3.6
15 Monte Morris PHX 7.0 2.1 1.8
16 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.4 4.5 1.6
17 Nick Richards CHA 6.0 4.9 1.1
18 Seth Curry CHA 6.0 1.7 0.8
19 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.5 6.0 1.9
20 Josh Okogie PHX 5.5 3.3 0.9
21 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 5.4 1.8 1.1
22 KJ Simpson CHA 5.3 2.1 1.8
23 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 5.0 2.5 0.8
24 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.5 3.7 1.1
25 Bol Bol PHX 4.2 2.2 0.7
26 Damion Lee PHX 3.1 1.2 0.7
27 Taj Gibson CHA 3.0 2.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.