NBA games

MIA @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
118–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
MIA28193124106118
SAC232718341011123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home SAC
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 49 26 7 4
Bam Adebayo S 45 18 12 2
Terry Rozier S 41 18 7 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 46 16 12 10
Haywood Highsmith S 46 14 6 1
Nikola Jovic 21 12 3 0
Duncan Robinson 25 8 2 4
Kel'el Ware 13 6 3 1
Pelle Larsson 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 47 30 3 4
Malik Monk S 49 23 5 6
Domantas Sabonis S 50 21 18 11
Keon Ellis S 49 17 8 3
Keegan Murray S 43 14 12 1
Kevin Huerter 15 7 2 1
Trey Lyles 23 6 6 1
Devin Carter 9 5 4 3
Alex Len 2 0 2 0
Doug McDermott 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keon Ellis · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:45 Q1
"Keon Ellis makes free throw 1 of 1"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
12%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
5 Malik Monk SAC
9%
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC
8%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
8 Terry Rozier MIA
7%
9 Kevin Love MIA
6%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
44%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.1 5.5 5.5
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.1 15.4 8.0
3 Malik Monk SAC 20.4 4.5 6.4
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.4 8.9 3.8
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC 17.3 4.0 3.4
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA 17.1 5.8 4.6
7 Terry Rozier MIA 13.0 5.0 2.3
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.3 2.8 3.1
9 Keegan Murray SAC 10.8 5.8 1.3
10 Nikola Jovic MIA 10.6 3.4 3.0
11 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.7 3.6 2.7
12 Trey Lyles SAC 8.4 4.7 1.2
13 Keon Ellis SAC 8.3 3.0 1.4
14 Kel'el Ware MIA 7.8 4.0 0.9
15 Kevin Huerter SAC 7.6 3.2 1.6
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.9 3.6 1.4
17 Alec Burks MIA 5.4 1.7 0.9
18 Josh Christopher MIA 5.4 1.6 2.4
19 Josh Richardson MIA 5.2 1.8 1.5
20 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.7 1.9 1.1
21 Doug McDermott SAC 4.5 1.3 0.6
22 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.4 2.5 0.7
23 Kevin Love MIA 3.7 2.5 0.9
24 Orlando Robinson SAC 3.2 1.7 0.9
25 Jae Crowder SAC 3.1 1.9 0.5
26 Alex Len SAC 3.0 2.6 1.1
27 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 2.8 1.2 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.