NBA games

LAC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
106108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC27262330106
MIN16303131108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home MIN
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 38 25 6 1
James Harden S 37 22 8 8
Ivica Zubac S 35 17 16 2
Derrick Jones Jr. 25 10 2 1
Amir Coffey 20 9 4 1
Kawhi Leonard S 21 8 2 2
Kevin Porter Jr. 19 7 6 7
Terance Mann 10 3 0 1
Nicolas Batum 13 3 3 0
Kris Dunn S 21 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 37 37 7 8
Naz Reid 31 18 7 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 31 15 9 1
Mike Conley 26 11 4 3
Jaden McDaniels S 33 11 2 2
Rudy Gobert S 38 8 18 2
Julius Randle S 23 5 6 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 15 3 2 2
Josh Minott 5 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:33 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
15%
2 Norman Powell LAC
13%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
4 Julius Randle MIN
12%
5 James Harden LAC
11%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
9 Mike Conley MIN
7%
10 Nicolas Batum LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
24%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.3 5.8 4.4
2 Norman Powell LAC 22.3 4.3 3.0
3 James Harden LAC 21.8 4.4 8.0
4 Julius Randle MIN 20.7 7.1 6.2
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.4 12.1 3.3
6 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.6 4.1 3.4
7 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 12.5 3.8 4.2
8 Naz Reid MIN 12.4 4.3 2.1
9 Amir Coffey LAC 11.5 3.1 1.4
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.4 6.2 1.6
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.2 8.4 1.1
12 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.4 3.5 1.3
13 Kris Dunn LAC 9.0 3.1 3.2
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.5 3.0 2.2
15 Terance Mann LAC 7.7 2.4 1.8
16 Bones Hyland LAC 7.4 1.8 1.8
17 Mike Conley MIN 7.3 2.3 3.8
18 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.6 2.4 0.9
19 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.9 2.9 1.5
20 Jordan Miller LAC 4.7 2.1 1.4
21 Kobe Brown LAC 3.6 2.3 0.7
22 Josh Minott MIN 3.5 1.5 0.6
23 Luka Garza MIN 3.5 1.5 0.4
24 Joe Ingles MIN 2.9 1.4 1.8
25 Leonard Miller MIN 2.9 2.4 0.4
26 Mo Bamba LAC 2.7 3.0 0.5
27 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 1.5 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.