NBA games

DAL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
104–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL36192524104
MEM26303132119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MEM
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
P.J. Washington S 32 17 10 5
Naji Marshall S 33 16 6 3
Jaden Hardy 21 15 3 2
Klay Thompson S 27 15 4 3
Dereck Lively II S 33 14 12 1
Quentin Grimes 26 9 6 6
Spencer Dinwiddie 30 6 1 3
Daniel Gafford 8 5 1 0
Maxi Kleber S 23 4 2 1
Dwight Powell 6 2 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 34 35 13 5
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 28 18 5 4
Jaylen Wells S 35 17 11 1
Luke Kennard 24 13 4 4
Jay Huff 28 11 1 1
Jake LaRavia 27 7 2 4
Brandon Clarke 15 6 2 1
John Konchar S 23 5 13 2
Zach Edey S 13 4 3 0
Cam Spencer 10 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Klay Thompson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Klay Thompson makes 19-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
14%
2 Quentin Grimes DAL
11%
3 Dereck Lively II DAL
11%
4 Zach Edey MEM
10%
5 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
10%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
10%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
8 Naji Marshall DAL
8%
9 Klay Thompson DAL
8%
10 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
29%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.6 7.4 4.0
2 Klay Thompson DAL 16.7 3.8 2.5
3 Quentin Grimes DAL 14.4 4.7 2.8
4 P.J. Washington DAL 13.5 5.4 1.8
5 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 12.5 3.2 4.3
6 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 11.8 3.3 4.0
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.7 3.3 1.9
8 Naji Marshall DAL 11.6 3.3 1.5
9 Zach Edey MEM 11.0 9.2 1.5
10 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.7 8.6 3.0
11 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.7 6.0 1.2
12 Luke Kennard MEM 9.4 3.1 3.2
13 Jake LaRavia MEM 8.4 3.6 3.1
14 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.3 6.5 1.1
15 Jay Huff MEM 7.9 3.3 1.0
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.8 1.9 1.3
17 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.6 3.1 1.5
18 Cam Spencer MEM 4.8 1.9 1.5
19 Brandon Williams DAL 4.7 1.3 1.2
20 John Konchar MEM 4.7 4.6 1.4
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.9 2.0 1.0
22 Markieff Morris DAL 3.0 1.3 0.7
23 Dwight Powell DAL 2.7 2.0 0.8
24 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.3 0.7 0.7
25 Colin Castleton MEM 2.0 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.