NBA games

SA @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
110–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA29363015110
CHI20303232114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home CHI
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 35 23 14 4
Chris Paul S 33 18 6 9
Julian Champagnie 16 12 4 0
Keldon Johnson 22 11 3 1
Devin Vassell S 34 11 4 5
Jeremy Sochan S 27 11 4 2
Stephon Castle 19 10 1 6
Harrison Barnes S 30 10 4 2
Charles Bassey 13 2 5 0
Tre Jones 12 2 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 40 35 10 8
Nikola Vucevic S 34 24 11 3
Coby White S 36 23 2 4
Patrick Williams S 34 12 1 3
Jalen Smith 14 9 8 1
Josh Giddey S 31 6 7 3
Lonzo Ball 24 5 4 2
Dalen Terry 5 0 2 0
Matas Buzelis 12 0 1 1
Julian Phillips 9 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 19-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
2 Devin Vassell SA
12%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
4 Coby White CHI
11%
5 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
6 Zach LaVine CHI
9%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
9 Chris Paul SA
9%
10 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
32%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.6 13.3 4.3
2 Zach LaVine CHI 24.5 4.8 5.2
3 Coby White CHI 20.0 3.5 5.0
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.2 10.7 3.8
5 Devin Vassell SA 14.9 4.8 3.2
6 Josh Giddey CHI 14.8 9.0 7.2
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 14.2 8.5 3.0
8 Harrison Barnes SA 11.6 3.0 1.5
9 Keldon Johnson SA 10.0 4.3 1.7
10 Julian Champagnie SA 9.9 3.5 1.4
11 Patrick Williams CHI 9.8 3.6 2.1
12 Chris Paul SA 9.2 4.7 8.0
13 Stephon Castle SA 8.5 2.6 3.1
14 Jalen Smith CHI 7.7 5.9 0.9
15 Lonzo Ball CHI 6.9 3.6 3.6
16 Charles Bassey SA 5.7 6.0 0.7
17 Tre Jones SA 5.2 2.3 3.8
18 Julian Phillips CHI 5.2 1.9 0.7
19 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 5.0 2.6 1.4
20 Dalen Terry CHI 4.9 1.7 1.4
21 Matas Buzelis CHI 4.8 3.2 0.8
22 Zach Collins SA 4.0 2.8 1.0
23 Jevon Carter CHI 3.5 0.9 0.8
24 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.4 2.3 0.5
25 Blake Wesley SA 3.1 1.1 1.7
26 Malaki Branham SA 2.9 1.0 0.9
27 Chris Duarte CHI 1.6 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.