NBA games

MIL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
128–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL28383329128
TOR19282829104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home TOR
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 26 25 5 3
Bobby Portis 23 20 7 3
Gary Trent Jr. 24 17 3 1
Brook Lopez S 32 16 4 4
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 29 11 12 13
Ryan Rollins 18 10 4 3
Taurean Prince S 31 8 2 4
Andre Jackson Jr. S 16 5 4 3
AJ Green 13 5 0 1
Stanley Umude 5 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 32 25 9 5
Scottie Barnes S 32 21 2 5
Jakob Poeltl S 31 12 7 1
Immanuel Quickley S 30 11 1 3
Gradey Dick S 27 11 3 3
Ja'Kobe Walter 11 8 2 1
Jonathan Mogbo 7 5 1 0
Jamal Shead 18 3 2 6
Kelly Olynyk 10 3 1 2
Bruce Brown 17 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jakob Poeltl · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Jakob Poeltl makes 10-foot two point shot (RJ Barrett assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR
11%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
5 Gradey Dick TOR
10%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
7 Damian Lillard MIL
10%
8 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
9%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
9%
10 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
32%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
17%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.4 12.4 6.0
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.8 3.9 7.0
3 RJ Barrett TOR 24.3 7.7 5.8
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.1 7.8 6.1
5 Bobby Portis MIL 16.7 8.7 3.8
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 16.4 3.4 7.4
7 Gradey Dick TOR 15.7 4.5 2.6
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 15.4 8.7 3.3
9 Brook Lopez MIL 14.7 5.2 1.8
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR 11.2 3.4 1.3
11 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 10.0 2.5 1.6
12 AJ Green MIL 9.6 2.9 2.5
13 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.2 2.9 1.2
14 Taurean Prince MIL 7.3 3.2 1.9
15 Chris Boucher TOR 7.0 3.0 0.9
16 Kelly Olynyk TOR 6.4 3.7 2.2
17 Jamal Shead TOR 6.3 1.9 4.1
18 Bruce Brown TOR 6.2 2.1 1.0
19 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.8 2.6 1.3
20 Davion Mitchell TOR 5.8 2.2 3.2
21 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.5 3.3 1.8
22 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.0 2.7 1.3
23 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 4.1 3.9 1.1
24 Delon Wright MIL 3.2 1.8 1.4
25 Bruno Fernando TOR 2.8 2.8 0.7
26 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.2 1.2 0.6
27 Liam Robbins MIL 2.2 1.3 0.6
28 Stanley Umude MIL 1.7 0.8 0.4
29 Garrett Temple TOR 1.2 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.