NBA games

ORL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
103–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL24292228103
NY2823172694

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home NY
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cole Anthony S 37 24 7 4
Wendell Carter Jr. 26 19 2 4
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 30 15 4 2
Jonathan Isaac 25 13 9 1
Jett Howard 16 9 1 0
Anthony Black 26 9 1 5
Tristan da Silva S 36 8 6 2
Goga Bitadze S 22 6 8 4
Trevelin Queen 5 0 0 0
Caleb Houstan S 16 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 36 24 1 4
Mikal Bridges S 42 24 5 2
Josh Hart S 42 15 14 2
Precious Achiuwa 22 10 2 0
OG Anunoby S 35 9 4 3
Cameron Payne 12 8 1 2
Jericho Sims S 29 4 10 2
Landry Shamet 21 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Jericho Sims assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mikal Bridges NY
13%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
3 Josh Hart NY
11%
4 OG Anunoby NY
10%
5 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
7 Anthony Black ORL
8%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
7%
10 Cole Anthony ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
27%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 28.1 3.3 7.2
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 25.4 12.7 4.2
3 Mikal Bridges NY 21.5 3.2 3.5
4 Josh Hart NY 17.1 9.9 5.9
5 OG Anunoby NY 14.9 4.6 2.1
6 Tristan da Silva ORL 13.6 4.4 2.6
7 Goga Bitadze ORL 13.1 10.7 3.5
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 11.8 2.7 2.6
9 Cole Anthony ORL 9.5 3.2 3.8
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.2 6.1 1.7
11 Anthony Black ORL 8.9 2.8 2.4
12 Miles McBride NY 6.9 2.4 2.6
13 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.4 5.6 1.1
14 Trevelin Queen ORL 6.1 1.9 1.8
15 Cameron Payne NY 5.4 1.4 2.0
16 Jett Howard ORL 5.2 1.4 0.9
17 Landry Shamet NY 5.2 1.5 0.9
18 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.9 1.4 0.8
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.8 3.9 1.0
20 Cory Joseph ORL 3.9 1.6 1.1
21 Jericho Sims NY 2.4 1.8 0.6
22 Matt Ryan NY 2.3 0.9 0.5
23 Tyler Kolek NY 2.3 0.9 0.7
24 Jacob Toppin NY 2.2 1.0 0.6
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.5 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.