NBA games

IND @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
113–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND24312335113
BKN2217312999

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home BKN
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 32 23 2 8
Bennedict Mathurin S 31 20 3 2
Pascal Siakam S 24 19 6 2
Obi Toppin 22 11 5 0
Myles Turner S 31 10 5 1
Andrew Nembhard S 31 8 5 3
Thomas Bryant 17 8 3 2
T.J. McConnell 17 8 1 2
Jarace Walker 11 4 3 1
Johnny Furphy 3 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Day'Ron Sharpe 22 16 13 5
Tyrese Martin S 30 15 5 1
Noah Clowney S 29 14 4 1
Keon Johnson S 32 12 4 5
Ziaire Williams S 26 10 8 4
Reece Beekman 18 9 0 0
Jalen Wilson 31 8 4 3
Tosan Evbuomwan 24 8 6 1
Nic Claxton S 26 4 7 3
Dariq Whitehead 3 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND
11%
3 Myles Turner IND
11%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
6 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
7 D'Angelo Russell BKN
8%
8 Jalen Wilson BKN
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
10 Keon Johnson BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
27%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.5 4.7 9.2
2 Pascal Siakam IND 18.9 8.8 3.3
3 Myles Turner IND 15.8 7.0 1.8
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.0 5.9 2.3
5 Andrew Nembhard IND 14.4 4.1 5.7
6 D'Angelo Russell BKN 13.5 3.3 5.7
7 Keon Johnson BKN 12.8 4.6 2.2
8 Nic Claxton BKN 11.0 7.4 1.5
9 Jalen Wilson BKN 10.6 3.1 1.7
10 Noah Clowney BKN 10.4 4.2 1.4
11 Obi Toppin IND 9.7 4.1 1.6
12 T.J. McConnell IND 9.1 2.8 4.6
13 Ziaire Williams BKN 8.2 3.7 1.6
14 Jarace Walker IND 7.9 2.5 1.3
15 Aaron Nesmith IND 7.9 3.1 1.2
16 Tyrese Martin BKN 7.1 3.7 1.8
17 Trendon Watford BKN 6.9 2.3 1.2
18 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.6 6.4 1.3
19 Ben Sheppard IND 5.8 2.9 1.0
20 Thomas Bryant IND 4.5 2.9 0.8
21 Johnny Furphy IND 3.4 1.8 0.7
22 Tosan Evbuomwan BKN 3.0 1.9 0.6
23 Dariq Whitehead BKN 2.8 0.8 0.3
24 Reece Beekman BKN 2.6 1.1 0.7
25 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.