NBA games

PHX @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
109–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX16263631109
PHI2323272699

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home PHI
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bradley Beal 30 25 3 5
Kevin Durant S 34 23 6 5
Ryan Dunn S 27 15 4 1
Devin Booker S 38 10 4 10
Oso Ighodaro 21 8 6 3
Monte Morris 22 7 0 2
Grayson Allen 14 6 1 0
Tyus Jones S 20 5 3 2
Jusuf Nurkic 14 5 7 1
Josh Okogie 7 3 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 44 31 0 10
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 38 26 11 1
Guerschon Yabusele S 36 14 10 1
Paul George S 38 13 9 5
Caleb Martin S 37 8 7 3
Adem Bona 11 4 5 0
Justin Edwards 13 3 3 0
Eric Gordon 8 0 0 0
Reggie Jackson 8 0 1 0
Ricky Council IV 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
23%
2 Devin Booker PHX
10%
3 Bradley Beal PHX
9%
4 Paul George PHI
8%
5 Tyrese Maxey PHI
8%
6 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
6%
8 Mason Plumlee PHX
6%
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
6%
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
69%
Jumper
9%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 28.9 6.6 5.7
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.8 3.8 6.7
3 Devin Booker PHX 24.5 4.3 6.8
4 Paul George PHI 19.7 5.6 4.7
5 Bradley Beal PHX 18.6 3.9 3.3
6 Tyus Jones PHX 15.3 3.1 5.0
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.9 7.0 2.0
8 Grayson Allen PHX 11.3 3.9 3.1
9 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 10.0 4.3 1.7
10 Caleb Martin PHI 9.9 3.6 1.7
11 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 9.0 8.1 2.6
12 Ricky Council IV PHI 7.5 3.0 0.9
13 Ryan Dunn PHX 7.3 3.7 1.3
14 Monte Morris PHX 6.1 2.0 1.7
15 Josh Okogie PHX 5.6 3.1 0.8
16 Andre Drummond PHI 5.5 6.6 0.9
17 Eric Gordon PHI 5.1 1.6 1.2
18 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.7 5.7 1.7
19 Bol Bol PHX 4.4 2.3 0.7
20 Justin Edwards PHI 4.4 1.7 0.8
21 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.0 1.8 1.2
22 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 3.2 1.2 1.0
23 Damion Lee PHX 3.1 1.3 0.7
24 Adem Bona PHI 3.1 2.6 0.6
25 Oso Ighodaro PHX 2.8 3.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.