NBA games

POR @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
115–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR28323025115
DET23283730118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home DET
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 36 36 2 9
Shaedon Sharpe S 43 20 8 8
Deandre Ayton S 35 18 11 4
Deni Avdija S 29 14 4 3
Toumani Camara S 36 12 3 1
Kris Murray 27 11 4 3
Donovan Clingan 13 4 5 1
Scoot Henderson 19 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 39 32 6 9
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 33 26 0 0
Tobias Harris S 37 17 5 3
Jalen Duren S 27 14 12 4
Simone Fontecchio 21 10 6 0
Ronald Holland II 15 8 2 1
Malik Beasley S 29 5 3 1
Marcus Sasser 15 4 3 5
Isaiah Stewart 14 2 6 0
Wendell Moore Jr. 3 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tim Hardaway Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
14%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
13%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
4 Jalen Duren DET
9%
5 Deni Avdija POR
9%
6 Deandre Ayton POR
9%
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
8 Wendell Moore Jr. DET
7%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Tobias Harris DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
35%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.2 5.8 9.7
2 Anfernee Simons POR 22.5 3.3 6.2
3 Deni Avdija POR 20.1 6.8 3.9
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.2 4.3 2.9
5 Malik Beasley DET 15.5 3.3 2.4
6 Deandre Ayton POR 13.7 10.7 1.7
7 Tobias Harris DET 12.4 5.9 2.3
8 Jerami Grant POR 12.3 3.9 2.1
9 Jalen Duren DET 12.1 9.6 2.0
10 Scoot Henderson POR 11.6 3.6 5.0
11 Toumani Camara POR 10.7 6.8 1.5
12 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 10.7 2.5 1.9
13 Dalano Banton POR 8.6 2.3 2.7
14 Ronald Holland II DET 8.0 2.6 0.9
15 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.2 4.6 1.5
16 Donovan Clingan POR 5.4 4.4 1.1
17 Marcus Sasser DET 5.4 1.3 2.0
18 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.1 1.7 0.9
19 Robert Williams III POR 4.9 4.8 0.7
20 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.9 3.3 1.7
21 Paul Reed DET 4.8 2.7 1.6
22 Daniss Jenkins DET 4.3 1.8 1.2
23 Kris Murray POR 3.8 1.9 0.9
24 Jabari Walker POR 3.3 2.5 0.4
25 Duop Reath POR 2.9 1.1 0.3
26 Rayan Rupert POR 2.3 1.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.