NBA games

SAC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
129–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC36393024129
GS2130242499

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home GS
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk S 29 26 3 12
Domantas Sabonis S 30 22 13 7
Kevin Huerter 20 16 1 0
Devin Carter 23 13 7 2
DeMar DeRozan S 31 12 0 1
Keon Ellis S 24 11 1 2
Keegan Murray S 26 11 4 2
Trey Lyles 24 7 9 1
Doug McDermott 7 6 0 1
Orlando Robinson 7 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 30 26 7 0
Andrew Wiggins S 26 18 4 1
Moses Moody 26 13 1 2
Draymond Green S 25 10 4 4
Kevon Looney 16 9 5 0
Buddy Hield 18 7 3 3
Lindy Waters III 20 5 2 0
Pat Spencer 12 4 1 4
Dennis Schroder S 21 3 2 2
Kyle Anderson 16 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malik Monk · Layup (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Malik Monk makes driving layup (Keegan Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
2 Malik Monk SAC
11%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
10%
5 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
7 Dennis Schroder GS
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 Stephen Curry GS
7%
10 Buddy Hield GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
35%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 23.0 4.2 6.5
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.3 14.2 6.4
3 Malik Monk SAC 20.0 4.5 6.3
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 19.3 4.1 3.7
5 Andrew Wiggins GS 16.9 4.7 2.8
6 Dennis Schroder GS 13.2 2.9 5.2
7 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 12.1 9.4 2.5
8 Keegan Murray SAC 10.7 6.2 1.2
9 Draymond Green GS 10.6 5.8 4.8
10 Kevin Huerter SAC 8.4 3.5 1.9
11 Trey Lyles SAC 7.9 4.2 1.1
12 Buddy Hield GS 7.3 2.7 1.4
13 Keon Ellis SAC 7.2 3.3 1.4
14 Moses Moody GS 7.2 1.5 0.9
15 Lindy Waters III GS 6.5 2.9 1.5
16 Kyle Anderson GS 5.9 2.8 1.6
17 Kevon Looney GS 5.0 4.2 1.4
18 Doug McDermott SAC 4.0 1.0 0.6
19 Jae Crowder SAC 3.2 1.9 0.6
20 Alex Len SAC 3.1 2.6 1.1
21 Pat Spencer GS 2.8 1.9 1.6
22 Gui Santos GS 2.5 1.4 0.7
23 Orlando Robinson SAC 1.8 1.0 0.7
24 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 1.8 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.