NBA games

LAL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
115–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL22274026115
HOU36312428119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home HOU
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 38 30 13 2
Austin Reaves S 41 21 0 10
LeBron James S 36 21 13 9
Max Christie S 39 14 6 2
Dorian Finney-Smith 26 13 2 2
Rui Hachimura S 28 13 1 0
Jaxson Hayes 6 2 2 1
Shake Milton 5 1 1 0
Dalton Knecht 17 0 1 0
Cam Reddish 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 33 33 6 4
Amen Thompson S 41 23 16 3
Fred VanVleet S 42 15 2 2
Alperen Sengun S 31 14 6 4
Cam Whitmore 16 8 4 0
Steven Adams 17 8 9 1
Aaron Holiday 12 7 0 0
Jae'Sean Tate 15 6 1 2
Dillon Brooks S 33 5 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Amen Thompson · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Amen Thompson makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Jalen Green HOU
11%
4 Anthony Davis LAL
10%
5 LeBron James LAL
10%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
8 Jeff Green HOU
7%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
6%
10 Max Christie LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
28%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 27.6 6.1 8.1
2 Anthony Davis LAL 23.6 12.5 3.8
3 Austin Reaves LAL 22.6 6.0 7.3
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.7 10.7 4.9
5 Jalen Green HOU 19.9 4.3 2.9
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 16.4 4.6 2.0
7 Amen Thompson HOU 13.7 7.9 2.6
8 Fred VanVleet HOU 13.2 4.7 5.8
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.9 5.9 1.7
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.7 5.5 1.6
11 Max Christie LAL 11.6 3.1 1.7
12 Shake Milton LAL 8.8 2.9 2.3
13 Cam Whitmore HOU 8.8 3.3 1.0
14 Tari Eason HOU 8.7 6.0 1.2
15 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 7.7 3.8 1.3
16 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.9 2.9 0.9
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.5 4.4 0.7
18 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.0 1.8 1.4
19 Cam Reddish LAL 4.5 2.6 1.0
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.4 2.5 0.8
21 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.9 1.5 1.1
22 Jeff Green HOU 3.8 1.6 0.6
23 Steven Adams HOU 3.7 4.8 1.0
24 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.6 2.0 0.7
25 Bronny James LAL 3.2 1.6 0.6
26 Jock Landale HOU 3.0 2.7 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.