NBA games

UTAH @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
10592
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH22212834105
ORL2518193092

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home ORL
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brice Sensabaugh 28 27 3 0
Collin Sexton S 26 20 4 2
Kyle Filipowski 30 12 7 3
Johnny Juzang S 23 12 3 3
Svi Mykhailiuk 20 12 4 3
Walker Kessler S 29 10 17 2
Drew Eubanks 17 7 3 1
Micah Potter S 21 3 2 0
Isaiah Collier S 28 2 5 6
Patty Mills 19 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jett Howard 25 21 2 4
Wendell Carter Jr. 19 15 6 2
Cole Anthony S 28 12 4 0
Trevelin Queen 25 11 3 6
Caleb Houstan S 25 9 2 0
Goga Bitadze S 29 9 11 4
Tristan da Silva S 31 6 9 2
Cory Joseph 15 5 0 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 28 2 2 2
Jonathan Isaac 14 2 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 20-foot pullup jump shot (Goga Bitadze assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Collin Sexton UTAH
13%
2 Goga Bitadze ORL
13%
3 Walker Kessler UTAH
11%
4 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
11%
5 Anthony Black ORL
11%
6 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
7 Tristan da Silva ORL
10%
8 Keyonte George UTAH
10%
9 Caleb Houstan ORL
9%
10 Micah Potter UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
35%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
26%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Collin Sexton UTAH 21.3 3.6 5.7
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 18.9 5.9 1.8
3 Keyonte George UTAH 17.8 4.3 5.2
4 Tristan da Silva ORL 14.5 4.0 2.8
5 Goga Bitadze ORL 13.9 10.7 3.8
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 12.5 2.5 2.8
7 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.2 9.8 2.0
8 Anthony Black ORL 10.0 3.0 2.6
9 Cole Anthony ORL 9.4 3.0 4.3
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.9 6.7 1.9
11 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.7 3.5 1.7
12 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.2 1.9 1.4
13 Johnny Juzang UTAH 6.6 2.9 0.7
14 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.8 4.1 1.1
15 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.6 1.7 1.5
16 Jett Howard ORL 4.9 1.4 0.9
17 Isaiah Collier UTAH 4.8 2.7 3.5
18 Micah Potter UTAH 4.7 3.8 1.1
19 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 4.4 3.2 1.1
20 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.4 1.5 0.9
21 Patty Mills UTAH 4.2 1.3 1.2
22 Cory Joseph ORL 4.1 1.6 1.0
23 Drew Eubanks UTAH 3.1 2.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.