NBA games

NO @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
110–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO33272426110
WSH2223252898

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home WSH
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 36 25 3 3
Trey Murphy III S 29 22 8 2
Yves Missi S 33 16 7 1
Dejounte Murray S 36 14 10 12
Herbert Jones S 38 11 4 1
Jordan Hawkins 12 6 2 0
Brandon Boston 19 5 4 1
Daniel Theis 15 5 7 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 10 3 4 1
Jose Alvarado 12 3 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 31 28 5 1
Alex Sarr S 28 18 11 3
Jared Butler 20 17 4 5
Bub Carrington S 34 16 7 4
Jonas Valanciunas 20 6 7 2
Corey Kispert 26 5 1 0
Malcolm Brogdon S 15 4 3 5
Justin Champagnie S 27 3 5 4
Kyshawn George 27 1 3 1
Anthony Gill 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trey Murphy III · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Trey Murphy III makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
14%
2 Trey Murphy III NO
13%
3 Alex Sarr WSH
12%
4 Dejounte Murray NO
12%
5 Yves Missi NO
12%
6 CJ McCollum NO
10%
7 Bub Carrington WSH
9%
8 Herbert Jones NO
9%
9 Justin Champagnie WSH
8%
10 Jose Alvarado NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
28%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 CJ McCollum NO 25.2 4.4 4.8
2 Trey Murphy III NO 24.3 4.9 3.7
3 Dejounte Murray NO 19.3 7.0 9.7
4 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 16.5 4.2 5.0
5 Alex Sarr WSH 16.3 6.6 3.0
6 Kyle Kuzma WSH 15.3 5.3 2.4
7 Herbert Jones NO 12.9 4.6 4.9
8 Justin Champagnie WSH 12.9 7.7 1.6
9 Jose Alvarado NO 12.7 3.1 4.8
10 Corey Kispert WSH 11.4 3.4 1.8
11 Yves Missi NO 11.3 9.7 2.0
12 Bub Carrington WSH 10.8 4.7 3.8
13 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 10.4 7.9 2.9
14 Brandon Boston NO 9.6 3.2 1.6
15 Jordan Hawkins NO 7.9 2.7 1.3
16 Kyshawn George WSH 7.0 3.9 1.6
17 Jared Butler WSH 6.3 1.7 2.3
18 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.6 3.3 1.2
19 Daniel Theis NO 5.2 3.8 1.4
20 Javonte Green NO 5.0 2.4 0.9
21 Antonio Reeves NO 4.2 1.2 0.8
22 Johnny Davis WSH 4.0 2.1 0.9
23 Anthony Gill WSH 3.4 1.8 0.6
24 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.9 1.4 0.7
25 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.5 2.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.