NBA games

CHA @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
105–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA23253027105
CLE29342824115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home CLE
5% 95%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 32 24 2 2
LaMelo Ball S 33 24 3 4
Nick Smith Jr. 19 18 5 2
Miles Bridges S 26 11 8 3
Mark Williams S 28 11 9 1
Cody Martin 22 8 6 5
Tidjane Salaun 23 6 9 1
KJ Simpson 13 2 1 0
Taj Gibson 8 1 0 0
Nick Richards 8 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 29 25 3 2
Donovan Mitchell S 29 19 3 4
Jarrett Allen S 28 19 11 2
Evan Mobley S 31 17 5 1
Georges Niang 18 10 2 3
Max Strus 25 9 3 4
Ty Jerome 20 8 4 5
Dean Wade S 22 6 4 2
Caris LeVert 25 2 5 6
JT Thor 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dean Wade · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Dean Wade makes 24-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
4 Mark Williams CHA
9%
5 Darius Garland CLE
9%
6 Donovan Mitchell CLE
8%
7 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
8 Vasilije Micic CHA
7%
9 Josh Green CHA
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
27%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 27.0 5.4 8.1
2 Darius Garland CLE 22.6 3.9 7.8
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 22.5 3.7 5.8
4 Evan Mobley CLE 22.4 7.8 3.7
5 Brandon Miller CHA 22.1 4.7 3.5
6 Miles Bridges CHA 22.0 8.5 4.3
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.5 9.6 2.0
8 Mark Williams CHA 12.0 8.0 2.0
9 Caris LeVert CLE 12.0 3.0 3.1
10 Georges Niang CLE 9.7 4.0 2.2
11 Vasilije Micic CHA 9.6 2.5 4.2
12 Josh Green CHA 8.8 3.3 1.5
13 Cody Martin CHA 8.7 4.9 1.9
14 Dean Wade CLE 8.6 6.1 1.6
15 Ty Jerome CLE 7.9 2.5 3.4
16 Max Strus CLE 7.0 3.6 2.3
17 Nick Richards CHA 6.8 6.0 1.3
18 Seth Curry CHA 6.5 2.0 0.9
19 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.7 3.8 1.4
20 KJ Simpson CHA 5.1 1.9 1.7
21 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 5.1 2.5 0.8
22 JT Thor CLE 5.0 2.1 0.7
23 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.1 1.6 0.9
24 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.1 1.7 1.3
25 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.3 3.5 0.6
26 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.0 1.9 0.7
27 Taj Gibson CHA 1.7 2.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.