NBA games

BOS @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
92–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS3530151292
OKC32232129105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home OKC
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 39 26 10 1
Jaylen Brown S 40 21 4 3
Kristaps Porzingis S 29 19 9 1
Derrick White S 37 11 4 4
Al Horford 25 6 8 1
Luke Kornet 15 4 4 0
Sam Hauser 11 3 1 0
Jrue Holiday S 34 2 7 6
Payton Pritchard 11 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 39 33 11 6
Aaron Wiggins 20 15 1 2
Luguentz Dort S 39 14 6 1
Cason Wallace S 35 13 3 2
Jalen Williams S 35 10 6 5
Isaiah Hartenstein S 35 8 10 2
Isaiah Joe 17 6 2 2
Kenrich Williams 12 3 1 0
Jaylin Williams 9 3 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Layup (2 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 3-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
18%
2 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
9%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
9%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
5 Jayson Tatum BOS
8%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
8%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Al Horford BOS
7%
10 Derrick White BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
32%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.8 5.3 6.1
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.7 10.4 5.8
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.1 5.8 5.0
4 Jalen Williams OKC 19.5 5.3 5.4
5 Derrick White BOS 17.3 4.5 3.5
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 16.4 6.0 1.9
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.9 4.2 3.3
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 12.6 11.0 3.4
9 Payton Pritchard BOS 12.3 4.7 3.6
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.1 4.1 1.2
11 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.4 3.1 1.1
12 Al Horford BOS 8.0 5.6 1.9
13 Cason Wallace OKC 7.1 3.0 2.4
14 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.2 3.1 1.2
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.2 2.3 0.9
16 Sam Hauser BOS 6.0 2.6 1.2
17 Luke Kornet BOS 5.7 6.7 1.5
18 Neemias Queta BOS 4.9 3.8 0.6
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.7 2.7 1.5
20 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.3 1.9 0.6
21 Malevy Leons OKC 2.8 2.0 0.6
22 Dillon Jones OKC 2.7 1.2 0.6
23 Jaden Springer BOS 2.5 1.5 0.5
24 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.4 1.6 0.6
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.3 1.5 0.5
26 Branden Carlson OKC 2.2 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.