NBA games

ATL @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
105–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL28262229105
LAC29452433131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home LAC
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 34 20 4 14
De'Andre Hunter 28 18 3 2
Garrison Mathews 26 15 8 3
Zaccharie Risacher S 28 13 5 3
Dyson Daniels S 30 11 3 1
Vit Krejci S 28 9 2 2
David Roddy 18 9 3 2
Clint Capela S 19 6 7 1
Onyeka Okongwu 24 4 8 2
Dominick Barlow 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 29 20 4 1
Ivica Zubac S 32 18 18 4
Amir Coffey 29 17 4 2
Kevin Porter Jr. 19 15 3 7
Terance Mann 16 12 3 2
Kawhi Leonard S 19 12 3 1
Derrick Jones Jr. 22 12 3 0
James Harden S 29 10 2 15
Kobe Brown 5 5 4 1
Nicolas Batum 11 4 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Norman Powell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Norman Powell makes 11-foot two point shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
13%
2 Norman Powell LAC
13%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
4 James Harden LAC
9%
5 Clint Capela ATL
9%
6 Trae Young ATL
9%
7 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
33%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 26.8 3.5 11.3
2 Norman Powell LAC 23.6 4.2 3.5
3 James Harden LAC 22.6 4.4 9.8
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 21.1 10.5 5.3
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 19.7 4.2 2.1
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 17.2 12.3 3.1
7 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 13.4 4.2 4.2
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.1 5.2 4.6
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.3 7.2 1.4
10 Amir Coffey LAC 12.2 3.2 1.6
11 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 11.6 3.2 2.5
12 Kris Dunn LAC 10.5 3.0 3.7
13 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.7 3.3 1.5
14 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.7 3.6 1.4
15 Clint Capela ATL 8.7 8.0 1.4
16 Bones Hyland LAC 8.0 1.7 2.0
17 Garrison Mathews ATL 7.5 2.3 1.5
18 Terance Mann LAC 7.2 2.4 1.9
19 Jordan Miller LAC 5.7 2.5 1.5
20 Vit Krejci ATL 5.2 2.7 2.4
21 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.0 3.1 1.6
22 Kobe Brown LAC 3.9 2.5 1.2
23 Mo Bamba LAC 3.7 3.5 0.8
24 David Roddy ATL 3.5 1.4 0.6
25 Kai Jones LAC 3.3 2.5 0.8
26 Dominick Barlow ATL 2.4 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.