NBA games

MEM @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
113–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM29253227113
GS30283429121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home GS
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 36 23 9 2
Desmond Bane S 35 22 4 10
Jake LaRavia 32 17 4 10
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 27 12 5 1
Brandon Clarke 26 10 6 0
Jay Huff 15 9 2 0
Jaylen Wells S 35 8 6 4
Cam Spencer 13 7 1 1
Zach Edey S 20 5 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 36 24 2 3
Dennis Schroder S 36 17 3 9
Lindy Waters III 28 16 3 2
Buddy Hield S 24 14 2 3
Jonathan Kuminga 15 13 2 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 28 11 9 5
Draymond Green S 31 9 2 3
Moses Moody 9 8 0 0
Kyle Anderson 22 7 3 3
Pat Spencer 12 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 15-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
14%
2 Andrew Wiggins GS
13%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
13%
4 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
11%
5 Brandon Clarke MEM
11%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
10%
7 Dennis Schroder GS
10%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
8%
10 Jay Huff MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
34%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.1 7.0 4.0
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS 22.4 6.5 3.5
3 Desmond Bane MEM 22.3 5.8 6.5
4 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.8 4.8 2.5
5 Dennis Schroder GS 14.9 3.0 5.6
6 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.1 3.3 1.8
7 Zach Edey MEM 11.8 9.4 1.5
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 11.6 3.3 4.0
9 Draymond Green GS 11.2 6.4 5.3
10 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 10.9 8.1 2.2
11 Luke Kennard MEM 9.5 3.1 3.2
12 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.6 6.6 1.3
13 Jay Huff MEM 7.9 3.0 1.0
14 Buddy Hield GS 7.7 3.0 1.3
15 Jake LaRavia MEM 7.4 3.6 2.4
16 Moses Moody GS 6.8 1.8 0.9
17 Lindy Waters III GS 5.7 2.7 1.4
18 Kyle Anderson GS 5.4 2.6 1.5
19 Kevon Looney GS 5.1 4.2 1.5
20 John Konchar MEM 4.8 4.6 1.3
21 Cam Spencer MEM 4.0 1.7 1.5
22 Pat Spencer GS 2.7 1.6 1.5
23 Gui Santos GS 2.6 1.5 0.8
24 Colin Castleton MEM 2.4 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.