NBA games

DEN @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
122–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
DEN3024272714122
SA272837163111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home SA
72% 28%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 43 46 9 10
Michael Porter Jr. S 46 28 10 2
Jamal Murray S 38 13 6 6
Russell Westbrook S 36 9 10 6
Peyton Watson 34 8 8 3
Christian Braun S 27 8 2 3
Julian Strawther 26 5 5 2
DeAndre Jordan 10 3 6 0
Jalen Pickett 4 2 2 0
Hunter Tyson 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Harrison Barnes S 33 22 1 3
Victor Wembanyama S 39 20 23 3
Devin Vassell S 39 19 8 3
Stephon Castle 16 10 1 3
Julian Champagnie 23 10 3 1
Keldon Johnson 27 10 8 1
Tre Jones 18 9 1 6
Jeremy Sochan S 26 5 8 0
Zach Collins 10 4 4 0
Chris Paul S 31 2 0 8

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:06 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
16%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
3 Russell Westbrook DEN
10%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
9%
5 Devin Vassell SA
9%
6 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
7 Christian Braun DEN
8%
8 Stephon Castle SA
8%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
10 Chris Paul SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
64%
Jumper
8%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.7 12.6 9.5
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 30.4 16.4 4.9
3 Jamal Murray DEN 23.6 4.5 6.3
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.5 4.9 2.4
5 Russell Westbrook DEN 16.5 6.3 7.0
6 Devin Vassell SA 15.5 4.6 3.4
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 14.2 7.8 3.1
8 Christian Braun DEN 11.8 4.7 2.5
9 Julian Champagnie SA 11.0 3.7 1.5
10 Keldon Johnson SA 10.7 4.1 1.7
11 Harrison Barnes SA 10.5 2.9 1.5
12 Stephon Castle SA 9.9 2.9 3.6
13 Chris Paul SA 9.1 4.6 7.5
14 Julian Strawther DEN 8.7 2.8 1.2
15 Peyton Watson DEN 7.7 3.4 1.7
16 Charles Bassey SA 5.7 5.8 0.7
17 Tre Jones SA 4.8 2.3 4.0
18 Dario Saric DEN 4.5 3.1 1.1
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.0 1.5 2.2
20 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.6 1.8 0.7
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.6 4.0 0.8
22 Zach Collins SA 3.6 2.7 1.2
23 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.5 2.3 0.6
24 Blake Wesley SA 3.1 1.1 1.9
25 Malaki Branham SA 2.9 1.0 1.1
26 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.3 1.0 0.4
27 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.2 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.