NBA games

POR @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
105–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR28262130105
MIL31202526102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home MIL
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 41 28 3 8
Deni Avdija S 43 19 14 4
Shaedon Sharpe S 32 16 4 3
Toumani Camara S 33 15 6 2
Deandre Ayton S 34 10 13 0
Scoot Henderson 24 9 7 3
Kris Murray 20 4 3 1
Donovan Clingan 14 4 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 38 31 11 2
AJ Green 30 21 2 3
Damian Lillard S 37 16 2 6
Bobby Portis 26 9 7 1
Andre Jackson Jr. S 14 6 3 4
Brook Lopez S 23 5 6 0
Gary Trent Jr. 18 5 2 0
Taurean Prince 22 5 3 5
Khris Middleton S 26 2 7 3
Ryan Rollins 6 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
13%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
11%
3 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
6 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
7 Deni Avdija POR
9%
8 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
9 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
31%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.6 12.4 6.6
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.8 4.2 7.1
3 Anfernee Simons POR 20.5 3.2 5.9
4 Deni Avdija POR 19.6 6.0 3.8
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.2 4.4 2.9
6 Bobby Portis MIL 17.6 9.0 3.8
7 Khris Middleton MIL 15.9 4.3 5.4
8 Brook Lopez MIL 14.5 5.0 1.8
9 Deandre Ayton POR 13.8 10.3 1.7
10 Jerami Grant POR 12.1 4.0 2.1
11 Scoot Henderson POR 11.5 3.3 4.7
12 Toumani Camara POR 9.7 6.5 1.4
13 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.4 2.7 1.4
14 Dalano Banton POR 8.6 2.5 2.6
15 AJ Green MIL 7.5 2.5 2.1
16 Taurean Prince MIL 6.9 2.8 1.7
17 Ryan Rollins MIL 6.3 2.6 1.5
18 Donovan Clingan POR 5.4 5.7 1.1
19 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.4 2.7 1.4
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.0 3.1 1.6
21 Robert Williams III POR 4.9 5.0 0.7
22 Kris Murray POR 3.3 1.8 0.7
23 Jabari Walker POR 3.2 2.6 0.4
24 Delon Wright MIL 3.1 1.7 1.5
25 Duop Reath POR 2.8 1.1 0.3
26 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.6 1.4 0.6
27 Rayan Rupert POR 2.3 1.0 0.6
28 Stanley Umude MIL 1.7 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.