NBA games

NY @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
126–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY33391737126
CHI29344135139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home CHI
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 37 44 16 5
Jalen Brunson S 33 33 2 8
Mikal Bridges S 33 18 3 1
OG Anunoby S 32 12 5 0
Cameron Payne 14 8 0 3
Precious Achiuwa 27 5 5 0
Landry Shamet 17 4 1 0
Josh Hart S 40 2 16 10
Tyler Kolek 2 0 0 0
Jacob Toppin 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 36 33 4 7
Coby White S 34 33 2 3
Nikola Vucevic S 34 22 12 3
Josh Giddey S 31 15 10 8
Jalen Smith 14 10 5 1
Lonzo Ball 25 8 2 6
Julian Phillips 15 7 1 1
Patrick Williams S 35 5 5 5
Dalen Terry 12 2 1 1
Matas Buzelis 2 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach LaVine · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Zach LaVine makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
3 Coby White CHI
10%
4 Josh Hart NY
10%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
8 Patrick Williams CHI
9%
9 Zach LaVine CHI
8%
10 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
61%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.9 3.5 7.6
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 25.2 14.1 4.3
3 Zach LaVine CHI 23.0 4.9 5.3
4 Mikal Bridges NY 20.2 3.0 3.7
5 Coby White CHI 19.2 3.4 5.1
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 18.6 9.9 3.6
7 Josh Hart NY 18.0 10.1 6.2
8 OG Anunoby NY 15.6 4.8 2.2
9 Josh Giddey CHI 14.1 8.5 7.1
10 Patrick Williams CHI 9.6 3.3 1.8
11 Miles McBride NY 7.7 2.6 2.9
12 Jalen Smith CHI 7.4 5.4 0.9
13 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.6 6.0 1.2
14 Landry Shamet NY 6.1 2.0 1.1
15 Lonzo Ball CHI 6.1 3.4 3.2
16 Cameron Payne NY 5.2 1.5 1.8
17 Matas Buzelis CHI 4.6 3.0 1.0
18 Dalen Terry CHI 4.5 1.4 1.3
19 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 4.5 2.3 1.3
20 Julian Phillips CHI 3.9 1.5 0.7
21 Jevon Carter CHI 3.9 1.0 1.0
22 Matt Ryan NY 2.2 0.6 0.4
23 Jericho Sims NY 2.2 2.5 0.5
24 Tyler Kolek NY 2.2 1.0 0.8
25 Jacob Toppin NY 1.8 0.8 0.4
26 Chris Duarte CHI 1.6 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.