NBA games

UTAH @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
136–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH22403638136
MIA22192534100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home MIA
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brice Sensabaugh 26 34 7 2
John Collins S 28 24 9 3
Collin Sexton S 31 17 5 8
Lauri Markkanen S 27 15 4 3
Walker Kessler S 26 14 16 0
Keyonte George S 26 11 6 5
Johnny Juzang 21 8 5 0
Isaiah Collier 24 7 2 6
Kyle Filipowski 22 4 3 2
Jordan Clarkson 3 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jovic S 24 17 1 3
Duncan Robinson 22 16 2 2
Tyler Herro S 29 15 4 6
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 34 13 2 4
Kel'el Ware 22 12 4 1
Terry Rozier S 18 8 1 0
Keshad Johnson 20 7 4 1
Josh Christopher 14 5 0 3
Bam Adebayo S 26 4 8 2
Haywood Highsmith S 16 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
John Collins · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:06 Q1
"John Collins makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
3 John Collins UTAH
10%
4 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
6 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
9%
7 Keyonte George UTAH
8%
8 Walker Kessler UTAH
8%
9 Kevin Love MIA
6%
10 Duncan Robinson MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
39%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 25.4 5.5 5.8
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 21.2 3.5 5.4
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 21.0 9.7 4.4
4 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 19.3 3.8 4.5
5 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 18.9 5.9 2.1
6 John Collins UTAH 18.2 7.3 2.7
7 Jimmy Butler III MIA 17.5 5.9 5.0
8 Keyonte George UTAH 17.0 4.3 5.8
9 Terry Rozier MIA 12.8 4.9 2.5
10 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.4 2.8 3.4
11 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.1 9.8 2.2
12 Nikola Jovic MIA 9.9 3.2 2.9
13 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.7 3.5 2.4
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.7 3.6 1.6
15 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.3 2.0 1.5
16 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 6.7 2.8 1.7
17 Kel'el Ware MIA 6.6 3.7 0.9
18 Johnny Juzang UTAH 6.2 2.5 0.9
19 Alec Burks MIA 5.8 1.9 0.9
20 Josh Christopher MIA 5.6 1.8 2.3
21 Josh Richardson MIA 5.5 1.8 1.7
22 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.4 2.1 1.4
23 Isaiah Collier UTAH 4.9 2.7 3.7
24 Patty Mills UTAH 4.3 1.4 1.3
25 Kevin Love MIA 4.2 2.7 1.1
26 Micah Potter UTAH 4.1 4.0 0.9
27 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.1 2.4 0.8
28 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 3.9 3.4 1.5
29 Drew Eubanks UTAH 3.6 2.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.