NBA games

MIN @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
105–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN28153824105
DET33224123119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DET
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 44 53 6 2
Julius Randle S 36 17 7 6
Naz Reid 25 9 3 1
Jaden McDaniels S 29 8 5 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 28 7 2 3
Rudy Gobert S 30 6 6 0
Donte DiVincenzo 26 5 4 3
Mike Conley S 21 0 0 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 40 6 9
Malik Beasley 33 23 2 1
Tobias Harris S 34 16 11 4
Ausar Thompson S 26 10 10 2
Isaiah Stewart 25 8 6 3
Ronald Holland II 17 8 2 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 33 7 2 3
Jalen Duren S 23 5 7 3
Marcus Sasser 11 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
15%
2 Julius Randle MIN
12%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
4 Jalen Duren DET
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Tobias Harris DET
9%
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
9%
8 Wendell Moore Jr. DET
8%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
35%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.6 6.1 10.0
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 22.5 5.8 4.4
3 Julius Randle MIN 22.0 6.9 6.1
4 Malik Beasley DET 15.2 3.4 2.3
5 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.4 4.0 3.3
6 Naz Reid MIN 12.6 4.6 2.1
7 Tobias Harris DET 12.3 5.4 1.9
8 Jalen Duren DET 11.8 9.5 1.9
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.1 6.6 1.5
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 10.9 2.7 1.6
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.2 9.1 1.2
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.7 3.0 2.0
13 Mike Conley MIN 8.0 2.5 4.1
14 Ausar Thompson DET 8.0 4.9 1.4
15 Ronald Holland II DET 7.8 2.7 0.9
16 Marcus Sasser DET 6.0 1.4 2.4
17 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.7 4.4 1.3
18 Paul Reed DET 5.2 2.9 1.5
19 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 5.2 3.5 1.6
20 Daniss Jenkins DET 4.1 1.8 1.2
21 Tristen Newton MIN 4.0 1.3 1.8
22 Leonard Miller MIN 3.1 2.5 0.4
23 Joe Ingles MIN 3.0 1.5 1.8
24 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 1.4 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.