NBA games

ATL @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
102–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL28292916102
LAL31343123119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home LAL
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 36 33 0 9
Jalen Johnson S 33 19 8 1
Onyeka Okongwu 24 14 11 2
Dyson Daniels S 31 13 3 4
Clint Capela S 22 8 7 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 25 7 3 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 23 5 2 3
De'Andre Hunter 27 3 3 1
David Roddy 2 0 1 0
Dominick Barlow 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 30 30 3 8
Austin Reaves S 39 20 7 6
Anthony Davis S 37 18 19 4
Rui Hachimura S 24 13 8 1
Dalton Knecht 15 13 4 1
Max Christie S 33 9 4 2
Dorian Finney-Smith 23 8 5 0
Jaxson Hayes 11 3 1 0
Cam Reddish 13 3 1 1
Shake Milton 13 2 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
3 LeBron James LAL
10%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
5 Clint Capela ATL
8%
6 Jaxson Hayes LAL
7%
7 Trae Young ATL
7%
8 Dyson Daniels ATL
6%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
6%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
31%
Jumper
16%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 27.6 6.9 8.5
2 Trae Young ATL 27.2 3.5 10.9
3 Anthony Davis LAL 25.8 13.3 4.6
4 Austin Reaves LAL 23.5 6.4 8.0
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 21.6 10.7 5.2
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL 20.6 4.2 2.0
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.5 5.3 2.0
8 Max Christie LAL 12.7 3.4 1.8
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.4 5.0 4.7
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.2 6.8 1.3
11 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 10.8 3.0 1.9
12 Shake Milton LAL 9.8 3.1 2.3
13 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.7 3.2 1.4
14 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 9.7 3.9 1.7
15 Clint Capela ATL 8.4 8.4 1.3
16 Dalton Knecht LAL 7.2 3.8 1.2
17 Garrison Mathews ATL 7.1 2.2 1.3
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.4 4.9 1.0
19 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.2 2.2 1.7
20 Cam Reddish LAL 5.7 2.9 1.3
21 Vit Krejci ATL 5.5 2.8 2.4
22 David Roddy ATL 3.3 1.2 0.6
23 Bronny James LAL 2.6 1.2 0.4
24 Dominick Barlow ATL 2.3 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.