NBA games

MEM @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
133–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM32402833133
SAC46322436138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home SAC
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Wells S 36 30 5 2
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 34 28 6 5
Desmond Bane S 35 22 7 8
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 25 16 2 5
Luke Kennard 32 11 8 9
Brandon Clarke S 23 11 8 0
Zach Edey 22 9 7 0
Jake LaRavia 16 6 3 2
Jay Huff 3 0 1 0
John Konchar 15 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk S 33 31 2 6
DeMar DeRozan S 38 29 3 5
De'Aaron Fox S 40 23 3 5
Domantas Sabonis S 38 17 10 6
Trey Lyles 22 16 6 1
Keon Ellis S 34 13 4 3
Kevin Huerter 14 5 3 4
Alex Len 10 4 1 0
Devin Carter 11 0 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malik Monk · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:40 Q1
"Malik Monk makes 23-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
14%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
12%
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
5 Malik Monk SAC
10%
6 Desmond Bane MEM
8%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
8 Zach Edey MEM
7%
9 John Konchar MEM
6%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
31%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 28.3 5.0 7.0
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.3 6.7 3.6
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.1 13.4 6.9
4 Desmond Bane MEM 20.4 5.2 6.5
5 Malik Monk SAC 18.3 4.3 5.8
6 DeMar DeRozan SAC 17.7 4.3 3.6
7 Zach Edey MEM 11.3 9.1 1.5
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 10.7 3.1 4.5
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.4 2.9 1.6
10 Kevin Huerter SAC 9.6 3.5 2.0
11 Luke Kennard MEM 8.1 2.6 2.3
12 Trey Lyles SAC 8.1 4.5 1.4
13 Jay Huff MEM 7.3 2.9 0.9
14 Brandon Clarke MEM 7.0 5.7 1.0
15 Jake LaRavia MEM 6.7 3.2 1.9
16 Keon Ellis SAC 6.5 3.1 1.4
17 Doug McDermott SAC 4.7 1.2 0.7
18 John Konchar MEM 4.1 4.1 1.3
19 Cam Spencer MEM 4.0 1.7 1.5
20 Jae Crowder SAC 3.2 1.9 0.6
21 Alex Len SAC 2.9 2.2 1.2
22 Isaac Jones SAC 2.9 1.7 0.4
23 Colin Castleton MEM 2.4 1.6 0.5
24 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 2.0 0.6 0.6
25 Colby Jones SAC 1.9 1.4 0.5
26 Orlando Robinson SAC 1.8 1.0 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.