NBA games

SA @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
113–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA32282726113
DEN30223820110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home DEN
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 33 35 18 4
Devin Vassell S 36 18 6 6
Keldon Johnson 26 16 4 1
Julian Champagnie 25 15 4 0
Stephon Castle S 24 8 3 4
Harrison Barnes S 32 8 4 3
Chris Paul S 31 7 8 11
Zach Collins 15 4 5 0
Tre Jones 17 2 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 41 18 9
Michael Porter Jr. S 42 22 4 1
Jamal Murray S 37 14 4 7
Julian Strawther 23 11 1 1
Christian Braun S 43 11 8 5
Russell Westbrook S 31 9 6 8
Peyton Watson 19 2 2 2
DeAndre Jordan 4 0 2 0
Hunter Tyson 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Russell Westbrook assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
15%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
14%
3 Russell Westbrook DEN
13%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
5 Christian Braun DEN
10%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
7 Devin Vassell SA
9%
8 Chris Paul SA
8%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
10 Stephon Castle SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
50%
Jumper
15%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 31.1 14.7 4.4
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.3 11.9 8.7
3 Jamal Murray DEN 23.6 4.5 6.4
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.2 4.8 2.7
5 Russell Westbrook DEN 16.3 6.0 6.9
6 Devin Vassell SA 14.0 4.3 3.1
7 Christian Braun DEN 12.0 4.8 2.6
8 Keldon Johnson SA 11.2 4.3 1.7
9 Harrison Barnes SA 10.5 2.6 1.4
10 Julian Champagnie SA 10.4 3.6 1.4
11 Stephon Castle SA 10.2 2.8 3.5
12 Chris Paul SA 8.9 4.5 7.5
13 Julian Strawther DEN 8.8 2.9 1.3
14 Peyton Watson DEN 8.7 3.5 1.7
15 Charles Bassey SA 6.0 5.8 0.8
16 Dario Saric DEN 4.5 3.1 1.2
17 Tre Jones SA 4.3 2.0 4.5
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.1 4.6 0.9
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.0 1.5 2.3
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.8 2.4 0.7
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.7 1.9 0.7
22 Blake Wesley SA 3.4 1.3 2.1
23 Malaki Branham SA 3.3 1.1 1.2
24 Zach Collins SA 2.9 2.3 1.2
25 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.5 1.0 0.7
26 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.3 1.0 0.5
27 Spencer Jones DEN 2.3 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.