NBA games

CLE @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
134–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE32373134134
DAL21323237122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home DAL
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Evan Mobley S 30 34 10 4
Caris LeVert 25 17 4 2
Darius Garland S 29 16 4 9
Donovan Mitchell S 27 15 0 6
Georges Niang 20 15 2 3
Jarrett Allen S 22 11 9 0
Dean Wade S 26 10 3 1
Ty Jerome 19 9 2 5
JT Thor 4 3 2 0
Craig Porter Jr. 4 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quentin Grimes S 33 26 2 6
Jaden Hardy 25 17 3 3
Klay Thompson S 29 16 3 3
P.J. Washington S 31 15 7 1
Brandon Williams 20 13 3 2
Daniel Gafford 17 12 8 2
Dereck Lively II S 27 7 11 3
Markieff Morris 4 5 1 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 7 4 4 1
Jazian Gortman 4 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes 2-foot dunk (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
4 Dereck Lively II DAL
11%
5 Darius Garland CLE
10%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
9%
8 Klay Thompson DAL
9%
9 Naji Marshall DAL
8%
10 Dean Wade CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
20%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Darius Garland CLE 22.2 3.8 6.8
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 22.1 4.2 5.9
3 Evan Mobley CLE 20.8 7.7 3.6
4 Klay Thompson DAL 16.3 4.0 2.3
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.0 9.2 2.0
6 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 12.5 3.1 3.9
7 P.J. Washington DAL 12.2 5.4 1.6
8 Naji Marshall DAL 11.5 3.5 1.4
9 Quentin Grimes DAL 11.4 4.6 2.2
10 Caris LeVert CLE 11.2 2.8 3.1
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.1 8.6 2.9
12 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.0 5.3 1.1
13 Georges Niang CLE 8.5 4.2 2.0
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.0 1.9 1.3
15 Dean Wade CLE 7.4 6.3 1.5
16 Ty Jerome CLE 6.7 2.4 2.9
17 Max Strus CLE 5.9 3.2 1.5
18 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.2 3.1 1.2
19 JT Thor CLE 4.2 1.8 0.5
20 Brandon Williams DAL 3.9 1.2 0.9
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.6 1.3 1.3
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.6 2.2 0.9
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.8 3.0 0.5
24 Jaylon Tyson CLE 2.4 1.5 0.5
25 Dwight Powell DAL 2.4 1.9 0.7
26 Jazian Gortman DAL 2.4 1.0 0.6
27 Markieff Morris DAL 1.1 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.