NBA games

NY @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
107–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY30362219107
OKC33212637117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home OKC
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 41 24 3 2
Jalen Brunson S 40 22 3 9
OG Anunoby S 43 20 2 3
Josh Hart S 44 19 7 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 42 17 22 4
Precious Achiuwa 8 3 5 0
Landry Shamet 14 2 0 2
Cameron Payne 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 33 4 7
Jalen Williams S 38 20 4 5
Aaron Wiggins 25 19 5 2
Luguentz Dort S 33 11 2 1
Ajay Mitchell 13 8 1 0
Isaiah Joe 15 7 2 1
Jaylin Williams 8 6 3 1
Cason Wallace S 33 5 4 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 31 4 14 7
Kenrich Williams 9 4 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
3 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
11%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
5 Josh Hart NY
9%
6 OG Anunoby NY
8%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
8 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
28%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.4 5.4 6.5
2 Jalen Brunson NY 25.0 3.5 7.1
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.7 14.8 4.2
4 Jalen Williams OKC 20.1 5.2 5.7
5 Mikal Bridges NY 19.8 3.0 3.4
6 Josh Hart NY 16.9 9.2 5.7
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 14.9 11.3 3.3
8 OG Anunoby NY 13.8 5.1 2.0
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.2 4.5 1.3
10 Ajay Mitchell OKC 7.8 2.9 1.8
11 Cason Wallace OKC 7.5 3.2 2.4
12 Miles McBride NY 7.4 2.6 2.8
13 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.8 2.4 1.1
14 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.6 2.8 1.2
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.1 2.2 0.9
16 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.0 5.9 1.1
17 Landry Shamet NY 5.9 1.8 0.8
18 Cameron Payne NY 5.3 1.5 1.9
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.9 2.5 1.8
20 Dillon Jones OKC 2.9 1.3 0.7
21 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.6 1.6 0.7
22 Branden Carlson OKC 2.4 1.5 0.6
23 Tyler Kolek NY 2.2 1.1 0.7
24 Matt Ryan NY 1.8 0.6 0.3
25 Jericho Sims NY 1.8 2.4 0.4
26 Jacob Toppin NY 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.