NBA games

WSH @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
120132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH37312923120
NO29333535132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home NO
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 31 26 4 7
Alex Sarr S 27 19 7 5
Malcolm Brogdon 25 16 3 3
Kyle Kuzma S 28 14 7 1
Justin Champagnie S 30 12 7 1
Jonas Valanciunas 20 9 10 2
Bub Carrington S 36 8 3 6
Corey Kispert 21 8 2 1
Kyshawn George 17 5 5 1
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 1 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 31 50 3 2
Trey Murphy III S 35 17 5 5
Brandon Boston 26 13 4 3
Yves Missi S 32 12 11 3
Dejounte Murray S 28 11 4 12
Herbert Jones S 33 10 1 6
Daniel Theis 15 7 4 0
Jose Alvarado 20 5 2 3
Jordan Hawkins 17 4 2 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 3 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
CJ McCollum · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"CJ McCollum makes driving layup (Trey Murphy III assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum NO
14%
2 Dejounte Murray NO
11%
3 Yves Missi NO
11%
4 Trey Murphy III NO
11%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
6 Herbert Jones NO
10%
7 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
8 Jose Alvarado NO
8%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
10 Justin Champagnie WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
36%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jordan Poole WSH 24.3 4.0 5.8
2 Trey Murphy III NO 24.1 4.8 3.8
3 CJ McCollum NO 24.0 4.5 5.4
4 Dejounte Murray NO 19.7 7.1 9.9
5 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 18.1 4.8 5.1
6 Alex Sarr WSH 14.8 6.8 2.7
7 Kyle Kuzma WSH 14.6 5.3 2.4
8 Justin Champagnie WSH 13.1 7.7 1.5
9 Herbert Jones NO 13.1 4.7 4.4
10 Jose Alvarado NO 12.9 3.1 5.0
11 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 11.7 8.4 2.9
12 Yves Missi NO 11.7 10.1 1.9
13 Corey Kispert WSH 11.5 3.4 1.8
14 Bub Carrington WSH 10.6 4.7 3.6
15 Brandon Boston NO 10.5 3.1 1.6
16 Jordan Hawkins NO 8.0 2.7 1.2
17 Kyshawn George WSH 7.1 3.8 1.6
18 Jared Butler WSH 6.8 1.7 2.2
19 Javonte Green NO 5.5 2.6 1.0
20 Daniel Theis NO 4.6 3.7 1.5
21 Antonio Reeves NO 4.4 1.3 0.8
22 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.3 3.1 1.0
23 Johnny Davis WSH 4.1 2.1 0.9
24 Anthony Gill WSH 3.4 1.8 0.7
25 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.6 2.2 0.3
26 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.